U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to join Israel’s illegal military attacks against Iranian scientists and safeguarded nuclear sites represents an irresponsible departure from his earlier pursuit of diplomacy. It will increase the risk of a nuclear-armed Iran and erode confidence in the nuclear nonproliferation system.

July/August 2025

By Daryl G. Kimball

U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to join Israel’s illegal military attacks against Iranian scientists and safeguarded nuclear sites represents an irresponsible departure from his earlier pursuit of diplomacy. It will increase the risk of a nuclear-armed Iran and erode confidence in the nuclear nonproliferation system.

Three days before Iranian and U.S. negotiators were to meet in Oman, Israel launched air strikes June 13. The attacks were designed to sabotage the talks as much as they were intended to damage Iran’s nuclear capabilities. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convinced Trump that U.S. participation was key to knocking out the most heavily fortified nuclear sites and coercing Iran to give up its nuclear program altogether. It did not.

The Israeli-U.S. military campaign—including heavy U.S. bombardment of underground portions of the Natanz and Fordow uranium enrichment plants and the Isfahan uranium conversion facility June 21—inflicted heavy damage but did not eliminate the program.

The Fordow underground uranium enrichment complex, Iran, June 22, 2025 (Getty Images)

Iran’s nuclear knowledge, its stockpile of 400 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60-percent uranium-235, its centrifuge manufacturing capacity, its third underground enrichment site, and its determination to keep the nuclear program going remain.

Prior to Israel’s attack, there was no imminent threat posed by Iran’s nuclear program and diplomacy had not been exhausted. U.S. intelligence agencies assessed that Iran’s leaders had not yet decided to build a bomb, and it would take it a year or more to assemble a warhead small and light enough to be delivered on a ballistic missile.

Now, it might take Iran years to rebuild its enrichment plants to the scale of operations before the attacks. But it will take only months to enrich its supply of uranium enriched to 60 percent U-235 to bomb grade on a smaller scale and process it into metal for weapons, if Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei gives the go-ahead

Worse yet, the Israeli-U.S. strikes have severely reduced Iran’s incentives to allow the return of International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspection teams, which are essential to fully understand the status of Iran's nuclear activities and account for its nuclear material. On-site inspections are crucial if Iran wants to demonstrate that its program is not producing weapons.

In the long run, the illegal attack on Iran by two nuclear-armed states—the United States and Israel, which has refused to join the nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) and has some 100 nuclear weapons—increases the chances that Iran may make the wrong decision, withdraw from the NPT and pursue a clandestine weaponization campaign.

There is a better decision—through serious nonproliferation diplomacy. The nuclear deal that Trump unilaterally abandoned in 2018, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), imposed limits, prohibitions and intrusive inspection requirements on Iran that were to last for 10 or 15 years, with some being permanent. For example, the JCPOA prohibited uranium enrichment at Fordow before 2030 and barred any production of highly enriched uranium by Iran through 2030.

The prospect of further negotiations on a new durable framework to contain Iran’s sensitive nuclear activities has been severely damaged. But it is still possible and necessary that Iran and the United States resume talks on an interim agreement to stabilize the situation and work with Gulf states on a longer-term regional solution.

Given Iran’s still substantial nuclear potential, the first priority must be securing its agreement to allow the return of IAEA inspectors. To do so, Trump should agree to Iran’s call for guarantees that there will be no further U.S. or Israeli attacks on any Iranian nuclear facilities or scientists so long as the IAEA is allowed to do its work.

Second, Iran should agree to suspend uranium enrichment for at least a year and to transfer its stocks of enriched uranium to another country under safeguards. After all, Iran’s major enrichment sites will be inoperable for quite some time, and domestic uranium enrichment is not necessary for Iran’s current domestic nuclear energy needs.

In exchange, Washington should recognize Iran’s right to pursue the peaceful use of nuclear energy as outlined in Article IV of the NPT and agree that Iran can, in the future, engage in limited centrifuge manufacturing and low-level uranium enrichment as part of a regional nuclear fuel consortium with other Gulf states.

To increase the prospect for success, Trump should pledge to deliver relief from U.S. nuclear-related sanctions that were reimposed on Iran following the U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA. France, Germany, and the United Kingdom must not reimpose international sanctions on Iran through the UN Security Council. The group also should acknowledge that the Israeli-U.S. strikes violated Article 2(4) of the UN Charter, which prohibits the threat or use of force in international relations.

All of this will require all sides to refrain from gratuitous threats and taunts, engage in serious sustained talks, and be willing to compromise enough to produce a win-win result. Although unlikely, such an outcome is vital to prevent the emergence of the tenth nuclear-armed state and the collapse of the nuclear nonproliferation system as we know it.

Media Advisory: July 10 Forum Highlights Human Toll of Nuclear Weapons and Need to Renew Action Against Nuclear Dangers

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ACA and Win Without War co-host July 10 Forum that highlights human toll of nuclear weapons and need to renew action against nuclear dangers

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For Immediate Release: July 3, 2025

Media Contacts: Daryl Kimball, ACA Executive Director, (202) 462-8270 ext. 107, Sara Haghdoosti, WWW Executive Director

(WASHINGTON, DC)— Arms Control Association and Win Without War Education Fund will commemorate the 80th anniversary of the nuclear age on July 10 with a special event: “From Trinity to Today: Nuclear Weapons and the Way Forward.”

The half-day conference – held in Washington, D.C. and webcast online -- will feature a keynote address by Congresswoman Dina Titus (D-Nev.) and three-panel series to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the atomic age, the humanitarian impacts of nuclear weapons use, testing, and production, the power of citizen movements that have changed the course of nuclear history, and how we can reduce the risks of nuclear weapons and arms racing today.

Panelists include leaders and activists from nuclear weapons impacted communities, including Japanese hibakusha leaders and U.S. nuclear test downwinders, former government officials, and key civil society leaders working to reduce and eliminate the nuclear threat.

The full agenda and speakers list is available here.

The event will close with a multi-organizational appeal for urgent action to halt and reverse the growing threat of nuclear war and nuclear arms racing.

“As we mark the 80th anniversary of the first ever nuclear test, code-named “Trinity,” and the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the risk of nuclear war and an unconstrained nuclear arms race is rising sharply,” said Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association.

"Our event is designed in part to recognize the experience, wisdom, and resilience of the communities affected by nuclear weapons use, testing and production, many of whom are calling for renewed push to move us toward a world free of nuclear weapons,” noted Sara Hagdoosti, Executive Director of Win Without War.

“Conveying the harsh realities of the nuclear weapons use, nuclear testing, and nuclear weapons production is important as a starting point for all nuclear disarmament efforts,” Kimball said

“More nuclear weapons will not make the world safer. We owe it to future generations to demand that our leaders take meaningful action to halt and reverse the new nuclear arms race and engage in effective diplomacy to reduce and eventually eliminate the threat,” he said.

“Unfortunately, the United States in on track to spend upwards of $1 trillion over the next decade to upgrade and expand its deadly nuclear arsenal,” Hagdoosti noted.

“We also want to highlight the need to reduce the skyrocketing costs of nuclear weapons and redirect resources to meet real human needs, including programs to mitigate the health and environmental harm caused by eight decades of nuclear weapons testing and production,” she said.

Reporters and other guests must register to attend in person or online.

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