Trump to Regain Control of U.S. Nuclear Policy. Now What?

December 2024

When Donald Trump begins his second term as U.S. president on January 20, he will assume control of an arsenal of 5,044 nuclear weapons and responsibility for guiding U.S. policy toward nine nuclear-armed states, one state that is dangerously close to becoming nuclear-capable and several conflicts that potentially could escalate to nuclear-weapons use. Trump also will assume a major role in deciding the direction of an estimated $1.5 trillion, 30-year program that is already underway to modernize all three legs of the U.S. nuclear triad, including bombers, submarines and missiles. It all occurs as tensions with Russia are at their worst since the Cold War and as Russia and China are pursuing their own nuclear modernization and expansion programs, setting the stage for a new arms race. Arms Control Today invited five experts to examine the challenges with China, Russia, Iran, North Korea and the defense budget faced by Trump, with an eye toward how he could or should manage these problems.—CAROL GIACOMO

• Dangerous Parallax: Chinese-U.S. Nuclear Risks in Trump’s Second Term
  By Tong Zhao
• Reducing the Russian Nuclear Danger: A Way Forward
  By Thomas Countryman
• Trump Could Make His Mark With a New Iran Deal
  By Ellie Geranmayeh
• How Will Trump Balance South and North Korea This Time?
  By Jenny Town
• Trump, the United States, and the New Nuclear Arms Race
  By Geoff Wilson