Tehran’s recent acceleration of proliferation-sensitive activities increases the risk that the United States or Israel perceive its actions as a step toward weaponization, which could trigger military action or prompt Washington to ratchet up economic and political pressure on Iran even further.

The widespread deployment of autonomous weapons systems and the integration of artificial intelligence into nuclear command, control, and communications systems pose novel threats to strategic stability that are not addressed by existing U.S. and multilateral initiatives to mitigate the dangers of artificial intelligence.

U.S. presidential leadership may be the most important factor in whether the risk of nuclear arms racing, proliferation, and war will rise or fall in the years ahead.