This analysis was originally posted on Armscontrolnow.org, the blog of the Arms Control Association on August 28, 2013.
By Kelsey Davenport and Daryl G. Kimball
Iran is continuing to make slow but steady progress on its nuclear program, according to the August 2013 quarterly report by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Tehran continues to install more centrifuges, including its second generation model. Iran’s accumulation its stockpiles of uranium enriched to 3.5 percent has increased modestly, while the quantity of uranium hexaflouride enriched to 20 percent remains roughly the same as reported in May.
Iran is also moving forward on construction of its heavy water reactor at Arak, which could potentially provide it with a second path to producing material for nuclear weapons, but on a slower schedule than previously reported. The report also says that Iran still has not provided the IAEA with the cooperation it needs to resolve the outstanding questions regarding the potential military dimensions of the program. For the first time in the August report, the agency outlines the key steps necessary to resolve these concerns (pg. 3). A meeting between Iranian and IAEA officials to resume talks on this issue is scheduled for September 27.
The findings underscore the urgent need for the United States to work with its negotiating partners, (China, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and Russia) to negotiate a solution that guards against a nuclear-armed Iran. The August 3 inauguration of Hassan Rouhani as president of Iran provides an important opportunity to resume negotiations. Rouhani has called for “greater transparency” in Iran’s nuclear activities and a resumption of serious negotiations.
Key Highlights from the Report:
- Iran’s stockpile of 20 percent enriched uranium is at 185.8 kilograms, an increase of only about 4 kilograms since May 2013, because Iran is continuing to convert 20 percent material into powder. The stockpile remains below the estimated 240-250 kilograms which, when further enriched to weapons grade, would be enough for one nuclear weapon.
- Iran continues to make progress on the Arak reactor, but its anticipated start-up date (early 2014) is no longer achievable due to construction delays.
- In total, Iran has about 10,200 IR-1 centrifuges operating at Natanz and Fordow.
- Iran has now installed 1,008 advanced (IR-2M) centrifuges at Natanz, but these centrifuges are not yet producing enriched uranium.
- The number of centrifuges enriching uranium to 20 percent at Fordow remains constant at 696.
- No progress has been made in negotiations between Iran and the IAEA on the scope and sequence of the agency’s investigation into Iran’s nuclear activities with possible military dimensions.