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"I find hope in the work of long-established groups such as the Arms Control Association...[and] I find hope in younger anti-nuclear activists and the movement around the world to formally ban the bomb."

– Vincent Intondi
Professor of History, Montgomery College
July 1, 2020
Arms Control Resource

The August IAEA Report on Iran: Key Takeaways

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This analysis was originally posted on Armscontrolnow.org, the blog of the Arms Control Association on August 28, 2013.

By Kelsey Davenport and Daryl G. Kimball

Iran is continuing to make slow but steady progress on its nuclear program, according to the August 2013 quarterly report by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Tehran continues to install more centrifuges, including its second generation model. Iran’s accumulation its stockpiles of uranium enriched to 3.5 percent has increased modestly, while the quantity of uranium hexaflouride enriched to 20 percent remains roughly the same as reported in May.

Iran is also moving forward on construction of its heavy water reactor at Arak, which could potentially provide it with a second path to producing material for nuclear weapons, but on a slower schedule than previously reported.  The report also says that Iran still has not provided the IAEA with the cooperation it needs to resolve the outstanding questions regarding the potential military dimensions of the program. For the first time in the August report, the agency outlines the key steps necessary to resolve these concerns (pg. 3). A meeting between Iranian and IAEA officials to resume talks on this issue is scheduled for September 27.

The findings underscore the urgent need for the United States to work with its negotiating partners, (China, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and Russia) to negotiate a solution that guards against a nuclear-armed Iran. The August 3 inauguration of Hassan Rouhani as president of Iran provides an important opportunity to resume negotiations. Rouhani has called for “greater transparency” in Iran’s nuclear activities and a resumption of serious negotiations.

Key Highlights from the Report:

  • Iran’s stockpile of 20 percent enriched uranium is at 185.8 kilograms, an increase of only about 4 kilograms since May 2013, because Iran is continuing to convert 20 percent material into powder. The stockpile remains below the estimated 240-250 kilograms which, when further enriched to weapons grade, would be enough for one nuclear weapon.
  • Iran continues to make progress on the Arak reactor, but its anticipated start-up date (early 2014) is no longer achievable due to construction delays.
  • In total, Iran has about 10,200 IR-1 centrifuges operating at Natanz and Fordow.
  • Iran has now installed 1,008 advanced (IR-2M) centrifuges at Natanz, but these centrifuges are not yet producing enriched uranium.
  • The number of centrifuges enriching uranium to 20 percent at Fordow remains constant at 696.
  • No progress has been made in negotiations between Iran and the IAEA on the scope and sequence of the agency’s investigation into Iran’s nuclear activities with possible military dimensions.

Continue reading...

    Description: 

    Iran is continuing to make slow but steady progress on its nuclear program, according to the August 2013 quarterly report by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Tehran continues to install more centrifuges, including its second generation model. Iran’s accumulation its stockpiles of uranium enriched to 3.5 percent has increased modestly, while the quantity of uranium hexaflouride enriched to 20 percent remains roughly the same as reported in May.

    Country Resources:

    The Cuban Missile Crisis and the Nuclear Weapons Threat Today

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    Key Resources from ACA

    For Immediate Release: October 5, 2012

    Contact: Daryl G. Kimball, Executive Director, Arms Control Association, 202-463-8270, ext. 107

    (Washington, D.C.) Fifty years since the October 15-28 Cuban missile crisis, the lessons of the events that brought the world to the brink of nuclear war are still being debated. A more complete understanding of the 1962 crisis--as well as today's nuclear dangers--is essential to avoid nuclear conflict in the future.

    Lessons: As two important essays in Arms Control Today illustrate, the U.S. and Soviet leaders narrow escape from nuclear conflict was as much the result of good luck as good crisis management. More recent scholarship and documentary evidence shows that earlier accounts of the 13-day Cuban missile crisis do not tell the whole story:

    "Looking Back: Reconsidering the Cuban Missile Crisis 50 Years Later," by Barton J. Bernstein, Professor Emeritus at Stanford University, Arms Control Today, October 2012.

    "Forty Years After 13 Days," by Robert S. McNamara, Arms Control Today, November 2002. On the 40th anniversary of the crisis, the former Secretary of Defense wrote an original essay on the lessons of the crisis in light of his conversations that year with his Soviet counterparts.

    "A Conversation in Havana," between McNamara and former Soviet Foreign Ministry official Georgy M. Kornienko and former KGB officer for Cuba, Nikolai S. Leonov from Arms Control Today,  November 2002. These excerpts from an October 2002 conference in Havana organized by the National Security Archive and Brown University's Watson Institute further reveal how little each side knew about the other intentions and potential actions at the height of the crisis.

    Next Steps: Five decades after 13 days, the threats posed by the bomb have changed, but a wide-range of nuclear weapons-related risks remain.  Today, there are approximately 20,000 nuclear weapons and nine nuclear-armed states. More countries have access to the technologies needed to produce nuclear bomb material than in 1962, and the risk of nuclear terrorism is a real and present danger.

    Doing nothing is not an option. No matter who occupies the White House following the 2012 election, he will face a range of nuclear security challenges that deserve high-level attention. For perspectives on the next steps, see:

    "The Nuclear Sword of Damocles," by Daryl G. Kimball, Arms Control Today, October 2012, outlines today's key problems and a nuclear risk reduction action plan for the U.S. president and other key leaders.

    "Nuclear Deterrence in a Changed World," by Sidney Drell and James Goodby, Arms Control Today, June 2012. The Cold War is over but U.S. and Russian nuclear forces exceed what is necessary to deter nuclear attack. The authors outline a path to reduce the role and number of U.S. and Russian stockpiles and engage other nuclear-armed states in the disarmament process.

    "Assessing Progress on Nuclear Nonproliferation and Disarmament," an ACA report, November 2010. This study measures the performance of 11 key states in 10 universally-recognized nonproliferation, disarmament, and nuclear security categories.

    The report underscores that preventing the use and spread of nuclear weapons depends on strengthening the global nuclear nonproliferation system and resolving the underlying security problems that can lead to conflict and nuclear competition.

    ###

    The Arms Control Association is an independent, membership-based organization dedicated to providing authoritative information and practical policy solutions to address the threats posed by the world's most dangerous weapons. ACA publishes the Arms Control Today, the leading journal in the field.

    Description: 

    (Washington, D.C.) Fifty years since the October 15-28 Cuban missile crisis, the lessons of the events that brought the world to the brink of nuclear war are still being debated. A more complete understanding of the 1962 crisis--as well as today's nuclear dangers--is essential to avoid nuclear conflict in the future.

    Subject Resources:

    The August 2012 IAEA Report on Iran: An Initial Assessment

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    Note: correction on Fordow centrifuge totals (3pm, Aug. 30)

    By Tom Z. Collina and Daryl G. Kimball

    The IAEA’s latest quarterly report on Iran, now in circulation, finds that Tehran has installed more machines for uranium enrichment in its Fordow underground facility, but has not started to use them. This means that Iran has not significantly increased its rate of enrichment at this facility since the IAEA's previous report from May.

    Moreover, although Iran has enriched additional uranium to almost 20%--a level that could be more quickly turned into weapons material--Tehran has converted much of this material to reactor fuel. Thus Iran’s available stockpile of 20% enriched uranium (91 kg) is essentially unchanged from May.

    Iran is still continuing enrichment at two sites and seeking to increase its stockpile of enriched uranium in violation of UN Security Council resolutions. Although, the August IAEA report is another troubling reminder of Iran's proliferation potential, it is not a “game-changer” in terms of Tehran’s capability to build a nuclear arsenal if it were to decide to do so.

    As White House spokesman Tommy Vietor said August 24, “there is still time and space” for diplomatic efforts to resolve the nuclear standoff. But it is also clear that new and more energetic diplomacy is needed to resolve the most urgent proliferation risks posed by Tehran’s nuclear activities.

    Here is our brief summary of key takeaways from the new IAEA report:

    Continue reading...

    Description: 

    The IAEA’s latest quarterly report on Iran, now in circulation, finds that Tehran has installed more machines for uranium enrichment in its Fordow underground facility, but has not started to use them. This means that Iran has not significantly increased its rate of enrichment at this facility since the IAEA's previous report from May.

    Country Resources:

    ACA Media Citations

    Partial List of Arms Control Association

    Media Citations

    January 1, 2010 – July 12, 2011

    “The breadth and volume of ACA coverage across a range of issues makes the group the ‘goto’ source in the press not only for arms control issues but also the wider umbrella of nuclear security issues. The group’s experts are frequently quoted in both the domestic and international press.”

    —Rethink Media Audit, May 2011

    Senate Foreign Relations Report on New START

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    The Senate Foreign Relations Committee recently released a report containing almost 150 pages of governmental perspectives on New START, including those of the armed forces.

    Click here (PDF) to download the full report.

    Description: 

    The Senate Foreign Relations Committee recently released a report containing almost 150 pages of governmental perspectives on New START, including those of the armed forces.

    Country Resources:

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