Experts Dismiss Speculation Over Iran Nuclear Testing

November 2024

International monitors have determined that Iran experienced two earthquakes on Oct. 5 and did not test a nuclear weapon.

Online suspicions about possible testing were sparked when one of the earthquakes struck a region centered in Aradan, about 100 kilometers from Tehran, and emanated from a depth of 10 kilometers.

Amid heightened tensions between Iran and Israel, there already had been speculation that Israel might strike Iranian nuclear facilities in response to an Iranian missile attack against Israel on Oct. 1. A nuclear test could be an additional provocation for Israel to attack Iran.

On Oct. 7, the Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO), which monitors nuclear tests and other activity internationally through hydroacoustic, radionuclide, seismic, and infrasound detection technology, released data and analysis confirming that recorded waveforms from the earthquakes are consistent with previous earthquakes in the northern region of Iran. Tehran also dismissed the nuclear testing rumor.

“Data gathered by more than 25 stations in our global monitoring network, known as the International Monitoring System…was analyzed by our team in Vienna. The analysis indicated that the two events were consistent with previous earthquakes in this area in Iran,” said CTBTO Executive Secretary Robert Floyd, according to the organization’s website.

When completed, the CTBTO monitoring system will consist of 321 monitoring stations and 16 laboratories hosted by 89 countries around the globe. About 90 percent of these facilities are already operational, providing a steady flow of real-time data. The work of the CTBTO highlights the stabilizing role that can be played by scientific and technical experts in times of high political tensions.—SHIZUKA KURAMITSU