Inside the Arms Control Association
August 2024
For the first time in more than 35 years, there is serious talk about increasing the size and diversity of the already massive and costly U.S. nuclear arsenal. Such an expansion would increase global nuclear dangers and reverse decades of progress in slashing U.S. and Russian nuclear weapons stockpiles.
In recent months, we’ve seen a barrage of proposals from nuclear weapons insiders and defense industry-supported think tanks calling for more U.S. strategic and tactical nuclear weapons to address a future with two “near peer” nuclear adversaries: Russia and China.
Some of these proposals, such as the 2023 report from the Congressional Commission on the U.S. Strategic Posture, say the United States should prepare to build up its deployed nuclear force at some unspecified future point. A new report from the Heritage Foundation, as well as the controversial Project 2025 plan, outlines an even more radical plan for increasing the number of nuclear weapons above current treaty limits right now.
None of these proposals consider what countermoves Russia or China might adopt, none consider the added costs, nor do any of them provide a sound rationale for why augmenting the U.S. arsenal is necessary to maintain the U.S. capability to deter a nuclear attack.
The Biden administration’s updated U.S. nuclear strategy has not, as some headlines suggest, been changed to focus on China.
Russia remains the key driver of U.S. strategy which calls for efforts to maintain nuclear arms restraints with Russia and to eventually negotiate new risk reduction and arms control arrangements with China.
However, even the Biden administration is making contingency plans that would allow the next president to increase the size and makeup of the U.S. nuclear force if China continues to increase the size of its nuclear force in the years ahead, and/or if the U.S. and Russia fail to maintain limits on their strategic arsenals after New START expires in 2026.
That means we have some time, but not much, to prevent what could be a dangerous three-way arms race.
Here at ACA, we’re at the forefront making the case against such a buildup and for arms control diplomacy.
As I wrote in the latest issue of Arms Control Today, more nuclear weapons and more nuclear weapons spending won’t make the United States safer and would only contribute to dangerous nuclear competition with Russia and China.
The reality is that the size of the current U.S. nuclear arsenal is more than enough to deter enemy nuclear attacks even if adversary arsenals grow. The use of just a fraction of the U.S. nuclear force would lead to mass destruction on an unprecedented scale.
There is another way forward. As the 2022 Nuclear Posture Review points out: “[m]utual, verifiable nuclear arms control offers the most effective, durable, and responsible path to reduce the role of nuclear weapons in our strategy and prevent their use.”
You can count on ACA to continue to lead nongovernmental efforts to press the current U.S. President, and the next, to pursue practical disarmament diplomacy.
At this critical juncture in the long struggle against The Bomb, we need your help and engagement to rally public pressure on Congress and the White House to halt and reverse the arms race so we don’t go backwards.
Our Work Depends on Your Support. Please Donate Now.
ACA’s Kuramitsu to Address UN General Assembly Sept. 4
Each year, the UN General Assembly (GA) convenes for a one-day, high-level meeting to mark the “International Day Against Nuclear Tests,” and this year we are very honored to note that the president of the GA has invited Shizuka Kuramitsu to deliver opening remarks at the start of the session.
The session will be broadcast live online on UN TV from 10am to 1pm on Wednesday, Sept. 4
Board Member Cusimano Love to Address Sept. 7 Forum on Disarmament & Deterrence
Catholic organizations at the University of Southern California (USC) and the University of New Mexico (UNM) are banding together to host a forum with policymakers and leading voices on nuclear disarmament and deterrence.
The “Forum on Nuclear Strategy: Disarmament and Deterrence in a Dangerous World” is set to take place on Saturday, Sept. 7, at the University of New Mexico. The conference will discuss deterrence and disarmament approaches to nuclear weapons amid rising political rivalry between the U.S., China, and Russia.
Speakers include: ACA Board Member and Catholic University Prof. Maryann Cusimano Love: former ACA Board member and New START negotiator, Rose Gottemoeller: the director of Los Alamos National Laboratory; Cardinal Robert McElroy of San Diego, the Archbishop Emeritus of Nagasaki, and Archbishop John C. Wester, who Arms Control Today interviewed in 2022.
The full list of participants is online here: dornsife.usc.edu/iacs/nuclearproject/
The forum will be livestreamed at YouTube.com/@iacsusc but you must register to watch. To register, visit: dornsife.usc.edu/iacs/nuclearevent/
Nuclear Disarmament Summits: New ACA Report Out Sept. 17
Next month ACA will release a new report proposing a new series of high-level disarmament summits to inject new energy and momentum into global efforts to eliminate nuclear weapons.
Modeled after the highly successful nuclear security summits, a series of disarmament summits could bypass and some of the structural and political factors that have slowed progress.
A virtual rollout briefing on the report, "Nuclear Disarmament Summits: A Proposal for Rejuvenating Progress Toward a World Free of Nuclear Weapons," will be held on Sept. 17.
Register here by Sept. 14 to attend.
"Although the existing disarmament architecture produced critical treaties and spurred states to take steps to reduce nuclear risk, progress on disarmament has stalled in recent years," says principal author and ACA director for nonproliferation policy, Kelsey Davenport.
"Nearly 80 years since the beginning of the nuclear age, there are still more than 12,000 nuclear weapons and the risk of nuclear war and nuclear arms racing is rising, not falling. Nearly all states and most of the nuclear-armed states have taken on legal and political commitments to achieve the complete elimination of all nuclear weapons, but today there is a serious nuclear disarmament deficit,” noted executive director, Daryl G. Kimball.
"In light of the growing nuclear danger, we believe that now is the time to seriously explore, develop, and pursue bold new approaches that can break the impasse on nuclear disarmament," Kimball said.
The full report will be available for download September 17 at www.ArmsControl.org/Reports
In Case You Missed It Other Recent ACA Staff Publications
- Constraining Iran’s Nuclear Potential in the Absence of the JCPOA, Policy White Paper by ACA Nonproliferation Policy Director, Kelsey Davenport, July 15, 2024.
“Gender as a flashpoint: Risks and resolutions for the NPT review process,” a commentary for the European Leadership Network by Sanaa Alvira, Marie Sklodowska-Curie fellow at the IAEA, and Shizuka Kuramitsu, ACA Research Assistant, July 2, 2024.
On the Road in Support of Nuclear Weapons Free Zones
Next week, ACA’s Daryl Kimball will join a group of diplomats and a handful of nongovernmental experts in Astana, Kazakhstan for a "Workshop on Fostering Cooperation and Enhancing Consultation Mechanisms among the Existing Nuclear-Weapons-Free Zones." The event is co-organized by the Government of the Republic of Kazakhstan and the United Nations Office for Disarmament Affairs.
ACA has been working to encourage the United States to finally ratify the protocols to three nuclear weapons free zones languishing in the Senate for more than a decade. The Astana meeting will also provide a useful opportunity to liaise with senior diplomats on a range of nuclear risk reduction and disarmament issues.
TAKE ACTION: Tell Congress to Keep a Human “In the Loop” on Nuclear Decision-Making
Next month, Congress will consider an addition to the fiscal year 2025 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) that would set in law the policy that the United States will keep a human “in the loop” for decisions involving nuclear weapons use.
During the September legislative session, the Senate will make final revisions to its version of the critical defense policy bill and decide whether to include this important statement of policy. The House has already included the policy in its version of the NDAA but will have to make the case for the language in conference with the Senate.
Congressional approval of this commonsense principle would represent a first step toward preventing the gravest dangers that would stem from the integration of artificial intelligence in nuclear command and control systems.
Please take a few minutes to send a message to your Members of Congress urging them to support legislation that declares that it is policy of the United States to keep a 'human in the loop' for all nuclear weapons employment decisions.
Thank You Tony Fleming for Eight Great Years of Service
This week, ACA’s director for communications and operations since 2016, Tony Fleming, is departing for an opportunity in the federal government. ACA depends on our small, but very dedicated and professional staff (pictured below) who come to the job every day ready to take on unexpected challenges in our pursuit of a more peaceful and secure world.
Tony (fourth from the right, above) has played a crucial, often behind the scenes, role in almost all of ACA’s activities supporting our massive web site, managing our data systems in an increasingly complex digital environment, expanding our social media and traditional media outreach, helping ACA navigate the remote work during the Covid pandemic, helping us add bells and whistles to our Annual Meeting, and more. He will certainly be missed.
ACA is in the process of filling the position opening in the next few weeks. Please see the job announcement for the position of “Website and Information Manager,“ which is available online.
ACA In the News
- "US says secret nuclear strategy not a response to a single country or threats," Reuters, August 20, 2024
- “Catholic leaders to attend ‘groundbreaking’ forum on nuclear weapons,” Catholic News Agency, August 20, 2024.
- "China on edge over prolonger U.S. missile deployment in Asia," Nikkei Asia, August 3, 2024.
- “DoD 'exploring' options for nuclear buildup as part of strategic review,” Breaking Defense, August 1 2024.
- Newsweek’s report on “Why China Doesn't Trust America's Nuclear Weapons Talks,” includes an extensive set of comments and analysis from Daryl Kimball, July 20.
- “Trump, as president, could launch a nuclear strike. This should scare you,” by Thomas Countryman and Alexander Vershbow, The Philadelphia Inquirer, July 19, 2024.