Trump Regains Control Over Nuclear Policy: What’s Next?

It has been barely a month since Inauguration day, but it is apparent that Donald Trump is determined to reshape U.S. foreign policy, radically alter alliance relationships, and upend Washington’s approach toward key adversaries, like Russia, in ways that are not yet clear.

And here at home, Trump's brash assertion of executive power is putting our nation’s democratic institutions and the rule of domestic law at risk, in part by altering or dismantling key government departments,agencies and functions, all without congressional approval.

All of this makes our mission to provide reliable information and sound policy solutions even more important and difficult.

The Arms Control Association has a clear and focused strategy to reduce the dangers posed by nuclear weapons and other WMD. Many of these priorities are outlined in this ACA-organized January 28 communication to all members of Congress that was endorsed by 16 of our partner organizations and leaders.

Like many others, however, we are still sorting out how to adjust to and contend with the post-Inauguration political dynamics.

But we must and we will, because critical, weapons-related security decisions lie ahead:

• So long as Russia's assault on Ukraine continues, there is still a heightened risk of nuclear weapons use, and there are narrowing prospects for a deal to maintain limits on the U.S. and Russian nuclear arsenals after New START expires in one year.
• Although Trump has decried exorbitant military expenditures, the authors of Project 2025, the 920-page manifesto crafted by the Heritage Foundation and others, want the United States to spend even more than the current $756 billion ten-year price tag for nuclear modernization in order to increase the size and diversity of the U.S. arsenal. China and Russia are watching and will surely respond to any U.S. nuclear buildup.
• Project 2025 also calls for preparing to resume U.S. nuclear explosive testing for the first time since 1992. Should the United States do so, it would open the door to nuclear testing by other states, unravel the CTBT, and blow apart the global nonproliferation system at a time of increasing nuclear danger.
• Since Trump withdrew from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, Tehran has expanded its capacity to produce weapons-grade nuclear material and reduced international inspectors’ access. Trump says he wants a nuclear deal; Iran’s president says he wants a nuclear deal. But time is short. Without a deal to scale back tensions and Iran’s nuclear capacity, we could see renewed international sanctions by October, Iranian withdrawal from the NPT, and/or an attempt by Israel to bomb Iran's nuclear sites.

How exactly the second Trump administration and the new Congress will try to navigate all these nuclear-related challenges ahead is not yet clear -- but if Project 2025 becomes the blueprint for U.S. nuclear weapons policy, we are in big trouble.

But, it may also be possible to steer us toward a safer course.

For example, in January and again on Feb. 13, President Trump briefly spoke about the “tremendous” cost and dangers of nuclear weapons and interest in talks on “denuclearization” with Russia and China.

Members of Congress, with advice and support from ACA, have responded by encouraging such talks in the form of a joint letter to the secretary of state and a bicameral resolution calling for effective U.S. arms control diplomacy and U.S.-Russian nuclear restraint after New START expires.

For more on these developments, see below.

Effective civil society efforts are essential to better inform and shape the outcomes of these and other nuclear weapons-related decisions.

And, the Arms Control Association depends on your support to sustain and fortify our efforts to help move us back from the nuclear brink.

The following update provides an inside look at some of our recent activities and future plans.

ACA Joins Forum on Nuclear Disarmament in Japan

In early February, ACA’s Research Assistant Shizuka Kuramitsu and Daryl Kimball were in Tokyo at the invitation of the Japan NGO Network for Nuclear Abolition Network to participate in their International Civil Society Forum to Abolish Nuclear Weapons from February 8-9.

It was one of the first major nuclear disarmament conferences marking 80 years since the first use of nuclear weapons on the cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The event, co-organized by the 2024 Nobel Peace Prize-winning organization, Nihon Hidankyo, was energizing and inspiring, but it also underscored the complexity and gravity of today's nuclear weapons challenges.

At the forum in Tokyo, Daryl delivered a keynote address on steps to advance disarmament in East Asia and globally. Shizuka also organized and chaired workshops on cross-regional role civil society strategies for disarmament, and on rethinking nuclear deterrence with Austrian Amb. for Disarmament, Alex Kmentt. We were the only U.S.-based representatives attending in person.

Following the conference, we also joined our Japanese NGO hosts for a two-hour, closed-door roundtable discussion on nuclear policy matters with leading members of the Diet. 

Shizuka,  is  a native of Hiroshima and her inspiring story was captured as part of a new PBS “Learning Media Nuclear Weapons and Security Policy Collection” on nuclear weapons for students. The video segment includes footage from her Sept. 4, 2024, address on behalf of civil society organizations to the UN General Assembly last September on the occasion of its high-level session to mark International Day Against Nuclear Testing.

Along with anti-nuclear leaders from Tahiti and the Marshall Islands, we also traveled to Hiroshima for a tour of the Peace Park, interviews with reporters, consultations with Hiroshima’s Mayor, and a public forum with local peace organizations, student groups, and hibakusha leaders who were keen to discuss how we can build momentum following the December Nobel Peace Prize ceremonies.

What to Make of Trump’s Talk About “Denuclearization” with Russia & China?

The Trump White House has begun preliminary discussions with the Kremlin on formal bilateral talks on how to bring the war on Ukraine to an end. Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin will likely meet in the near future.

Trump’s pro-Kremlin posture ahead of the planned U.S.-Russian talks on Ukraine’s future pose very significant security risks for Ukraine, as well as major U.S. allies in Europe, who have so far been cut out of the discussions.

Nevertheless, the renewal of a dialogue between Washington and Moscow could open the door to U.S.-Russian talks that could help maintain nuclear arms control limits on the world’s two largest arsenals before New START expires in Feb. 2026.

Last month Trump expressed support for talks on “denuclearization” with Russia and China. On Feb. 13, Trump doubled down on these comments, saying: “There’s no reason for us to be building brand new nuclear weapons, we already have so many… You could destroy the world 50 times over, 100 times over. And here we are building new nuclear weapons, and they’re building nuclear weapons.”

In response to Trump’s remarks, ACA issued a detailed statement that welcomed his interest in “denuclearization” discussions, and we also outlined a practical strategy for engaging with Moscow and Beijing on nuclear arms reductions.

Noting that Trump failed to make progress in such talks during his first term, we cautioned that “hope alone is not an effective nuclear arms reduction strategy.” We noted that serious talks on a new nuclear arms control framework agreement will be complex and time consuming, and should not be linked to a resolution of Russia’s war against Ukraine.

To start, we suggest that the United States and Russia could reach a simple, informal deal to maintain the existing caps on their strategic arsenals – even after New START expires – as long as the other side agrees to do so.

For more of our analysis, see ACA Board Chair Tom Countryman’s article, "Reducing the Russian Nuclear Danger: A Way Forward,” in the December issue of Arms Control Today.

Take Action: Tell Congress to Condemn N-Threats and Support Arms Control

You can help build bipartisan support for sensible nuclear arms control and disarmament talks by contacting your members of Congress. Please urge them to co-sponsor a bicameral resolution that calls for strong, U.S.-led leadership for nuclear arms control vis-a-vis Russia and China and condemns nuclear threats from Russia or any other state. 

The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), the last major remaining bilateral nuclear arms control agreement, will expire in less than a year. After Feb. 5, 2026, the United States and Russia will no longer be capped at 1,550 deployed strategic warheads, meaning both sides will be tempted to adopt worst-case assumptions of the other’s nuclear plans.

H. Res. 100 and S. Res. 61 recognize the need for pragmatic engagement with Russia to freeze strategic arsenals at New START levels. You can use our online action alert (below) to contact your Representative in the House and your Senators. Ask them to co-sponsor and actively support of H. Res. 100 introduced by Rep. Bill Foster (D-Ill.) joined by  more than a dozen others, and S. Res. 61 introduced by Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.) and Sen. Jack Reed (D-R.I.).

Take Action: Write your Member of Congress Now!

ACA Weighs In on DOGE-mandated Staff Cuts at Key Nuclear Agencies

After Elon Musk’s “Department of Government Efficiency” (DOGE) and new Trump administration officials at the Department of Energy (DOE) announced they would fire hundreds of federal employees at DOE and the National Nuclear Security Administration tasked with working on the nation’s nuclear weapons programs, the administration reversed itself after congressional and public criticism. The Associated Press reported Feb. 16 that the administration’s actions have “left workers confused and experts cautioning that DOGE’s arbitrary federal workforce cuts will put communities at risk.”

“The DOGE people are coming in with absolutely no knowledge of what these departments are responsible for,” ACA’s Daryl Kimball told the Associated Press. “They don’t seem to realize that it’s actually the department of nuclear weapons more than it is the Department of Energy.” His comments were widely cited in multiple news accounts, including MSNBC.

“This is a pivotal moment. We must decide whether we are truly committed to leading on the world stage or if we are content with undermining the very systems that secure our nation’s future,” said NNSA deputy division director Rob Plonski in a post on LinkedIn. “Cutting the federal workforce responsible for these functions may be seen as reckless at best and adversarially opportunistic at worst.”

Feb. 28 Webinar: “U.S. Policy and Nuclear Threat Reduction Challenges in 2025”

Join us on Friday, February 28 from Noon to 1:30pm (EST) for a webinar organized by the Physicists Coalition for Nuclear Threat Reduction that will deliver expert views on current and emerging crises and opportunities for nuclear threat reduction efforts in the United States. Speakers will also outline the near-term nuclear policy advocacy goals of the Coalition, which is a project hosted by ACA.

Register Here

Speakers include:

• Moderator – Zia Mian, Princeton University's Program on Science and Global Security, and member of the Steering Committee Physicists Coalition for Nuclear Threat Reduction.
• U.S. nuclear weapons programs –  Hans Kristensen, Director of the Nuclear Information Project, Federation of American Scientists 
• The U.S. “Iron Dome” missile defense program – Laura  Grego, Senior scientist and Research Director, Global Security Program, Union of Concerned Scientists
• Opportunities for nuclear arms control talks – Xiaodon Liang, Senior Policy Analyst, Nuclear Weapons Policy and Disarmament, Arms Control Association
• Physicists Coalition advocacy goals for 2025 – Stewart Prager, Professor emeritus of astrophysical sciences, Princeton University, and chair of the Steering Committee, Physicists Coalition for Nuclear Threat Reduction