Nuclear Disarmament Monitor
July 25, 2024
The second preparatory committee meeting ahead of the 2026 nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) Review Conference is underway in Geneva. 191 states-parties to the NPT and 72 non-governmental organizations (NGOs) are gathering from July 22 to Aug. 2 to review the implementation of the landmark treaty and to develop a forward-looking action plan covering the treaty’s key components: nonproliferation, disarmament, and peaceful uses of nuclear energy.
Amid high pressure on the NPT regime, “each pillar of the NPT provides for areas where convergence is realistic and attainable, including risk reduction, security doctrines, negative security assurances, humanitarian consequences, accountability and peaceful uses,” Akan Rakhmetullin, Kazakhstan’s deputy foreign minister and chair of the 2024 preparatory committee meeting told the Arms Control Association on July 15. States-parties have submitted 38 working papers so far.
Among the many issues to be discussed at the meeting, the debate concerning disarmament and the absence of dialogue between Russia and the United States and China and the United States on nuclear risk reduction and arms control remains particularly contentious, as each of the three countries accelerates efforts to fortify their respective nuclear arsenals.
While the United States and other coalitions such as the Stockholm Initiative for Nuclear Disarmament and the Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Initiative continue advocating for transparency in arsenals and accountability, China prioritizes doctrinal transparency and has proposed a multilateral no-first-use treaty. On the second day of the meeting, the Arms Control Association delivered a joint NGO statement on behalf of 50 organizations about breaking the disarmament impasse.
“It is a crucial moment for us to harness our collective will to ensure that the Treaty remains effective in its goal of pursuing a world free of nuclear weapons,” added Rakhmetullin.
The next preparatory committee meeting will occur from April 28 to May 9, 2025, in New York under Ghana’s presidency. —Xiaodon Liang, senior policy analyst; Shizuka Kuramitsu, research assistant; Libby Flatoff, operations and program assistant; Garrett Welch, policy and research intern.
U.S. ICBM Program to Continue Despite Cost Growth
The Department of Defense announced July 8 that it would continue building a new nuclear intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) system despite an 81% cost projection increase. The acquisition program for the Sentinel ICBM is now expected to cost $141 billion dollars, after minor adjustments to reduce its expected price. The announcement came after a statutorily mandated review of the program, triggered by an initial rise in cost projections last year.
Pentagon officials say the review examined and rejected several major modifications to the program as cost-saving alternatives. These alternatives included moving to a road-mobile system, using an existing missile such as the Trident D5 SLBM, or extending the life of the existing Minuteman III ICBM until 2070. The review did not assess the cost of life-extending the Minuteman III to 2040 or 2050, as requested by Congressional critics of the Sentinel program earlier this year.
Officials blamed the price increase on higher-than-expected construction costs, including for ICBM launch facilities and communication infrastructure. The Air Force intends to build 659 missiles and deploy 400, although some Congressional supporters of the missile are asking the service to plan for a deployment of 450.
Kazakhstan to Host Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zones Workshop
For the first time in five years, states-parties to the five nuclear-weapon-free-zone treaties, international organizations, and various other interested parties will gather for a workshop to reinforce these zones, amid stagnating nuclear disarmament negotiations.
At the meeting scheduled under the leadership of Kazakhstan and the UN Office for Disarmament Affairs for August 27-28 in Astana, Kazakhstan, stakeholders will explore how to advance zone-related issues including “fostering cooperation and enhancing consultation mechanisms” among the existing zones, according to the organizers’ planning document.
Despite “today’s fragile geostrategic context, finding ways to fully implement the security benefits due to member states in light of the commitments they have made as parties to [the zones] must be a top priority,” added the document.
The United States remains the only NPT nuclear-armed state that has yet to ratify the protocols to the zone treaties covering the South Pacific (Treaty of Rarotonga), Africa (Treaty of Pelindaba), and Central Asia. Discussions are ongoing among members of Congress and the U.S. State Department on advancing the ratification process.
U.S. to Deploy INF-Range Missiles in Germany
Ahead of the July 9-11 NATO Conference in Washington, the United States and Germany released a joint statement announcing that the United States will begin “episodic” deployments of land-based Tomahawk cruise missiles and other long-range missiles to Germany in 2026. The conventionally armed missiles will be fielded by a U.S. Army Multi-Domain Task Force initially assigned to Germany in 2021.
The statement said, “exercising these advanced capabilities will demonstrate the United States’ commitment to NATO and its contributions to European integrated deterrence.” The Tomahawk, SM-6, and hypersonic missiles included in the agreement have a significantly longer range than other NATO land-based missiles in the region and previously would have been prohibited by the now-defunct Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty. German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius said, “we are talking here about an increasingly serious gap in capability in Europe,” in comments at the NATO summit on the motivations for the deployment.
In response to the announcement, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said, “This is just a link in the chain of a course of escalation,” and added that Moscow would react with a “military response to the new threat.”
On the sidelines of the NATO conference, a group of NATO members composed of France, Germany, Italy, and Poland signed a letter of intent on the co-development of a long-range missile that could provide an alternative to the U.S. Tomahawk. This agreement effort is in its early stages and no timeline or budget has been released.
The NATO alliance also affirmed long-term support for Ukraine, including immediate military aid with air defense systems and F-16 jets and a new joint training center in Bydgoszcz, Poland.
U.S. and South Korea Sign Nuclear Deterrence Guidelines
On July 12, the United States and South Korea signed joint nuclear deterrence guidelines that aim to strengthen the bilateral alliance and the U.S. extended deterrence commitment. Although the specifics of the guidelines remain confidential, the two sides announced that they pertain to coordination between South Korea’s conventional weapons and U.S. nuclear forces in response to a hypothetical North Korean nuclear attack.
North Korea’s Defense Ministry condemned the guidelines, stating they reveal the two states’ “sinister intention to step up their preparations for a nuclear war against” North Korea. It promised to further strengthen nuclear capabilities, including by the addition of unspecified “important elements to the composition of the deterrent.” South Korea’s Defense Ministry dismissed the statement as “sophistry,” citing North Korea’s provocations as the sole impetus for establishing the guidelines.
This development comes one year after the United States and South Korea launched the joint Nuclear Consultative Group, a bilateral body formed in response to growing nuclear tensions on the peninsula. North Korea has accelerated missile testing and threatened to use nuclear weapons preemptively in a potential conflict, while the United States and South Korea have continued to host joint military exercises that North Korea describes as “rehearsals for invasion.”
U.S. Discloses Warhead Stockpile Numbers
The U.S. Department of Energy declared that the United States has 3,748 nuclear warheads in its military stockpile as of September 2023, reinstating a transparency practice begun by the Obama administration, discontinued by the Trump administration, and only sporadically continued under Joe Biden. The declaration, made July 19, also noted that the National Nuclear Security Administration dismantled only 69 retired warheads in fiscal year 2023, the smallest number on record. Another approximately 2,000 warheads are retired and awaiting dismantlement, according to the declaration. The Department of Energy last made a disclosure of this type in 2021.
China Blames U.S. Taiwan Policy for Arms Control Snub
A spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs said July 17 that China had turned down the U.S. offer of nuclear arms control talks earlier this year because of U.S. arms sales to Taiwan. Speaking at a regular press conference, Lin Jian, the Chinese official, also accused the United States of doing “things that severely undermine China’s core interests and the mutual trust between China and the US.”
In response, a U.S. State Department spokesperson said the Chinese decision to condition arms control and risk reduction talks on the broader relationship “undermines strategic stability” and “increases the risk of arms race dynamics.” Matthew Miller, the spokesperson, added that the United States remained open to talks with China on “developing and implementing concrete risk-reduction measures.”
In May, U.S. officials disclosed that China had declined an offer of a follow-on to a November bilateral dialogue on arms control issues. China also declined to take up three U.S. risk reduction proposals.
CTBTO Conducts On-Site Inspection Exercise in Hungary
The On-Site Inspection Division of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) began its 2024 Build-Up Exercise in Gyöngyös, Hungary, in early July. The event, co-sponsored by the Hungarian government, involves three weeks of simulations of on-site inspection activities. These events are conducted by the division to prepare the CTBTO’s on-site inspection capabilities for future entry into force of the test-ban treaty. According to the CTBTO, this month’s exercise will involve 130 participants from 42 countries, performing simulated inspection activities across a 382 square kilometer area. The CTBTO last held a Build-Up Exercise in 2019, in Austria.
U.S. Mayors Call for Diplomacy among Nuclear-Armed States
The U.S. Conference of Mayors passed a resolution at its June meeting expressing strong support for dialogue and diplomacy between nuclear-armed states. The resolution, titled “The Imperative of Dialogue in a Time of Acute Nuclear Dangers,” was passed at the 92nd Annual Meeting held June 20-23 in Kansas City, Missouri. The conference brings together mayors of cities with a population larger than 30,000 from across the United States to engage in advocacy with the federal government on a range of issues.
The resolution expresses concern about the modernization of nuclear arsenals and the increasing risk of conflict between nuclear-armed states. Specifically, it calls for the re-establishment of bilateral talks between the United States and Russia on a follow-on to New START and “good-faith negotiations” on arms control with China. It also calls on the Biden administration and Congress “to reconsider further investments in nuclear weapons and find ways that our finite federal resources can better meet human needs.”
In Case You Missed It
- “Why China Doesn't Trust America's Nuclear Weapons Talks,” Newsweek, July 20.
- "Does the United States Need More Nuclear Weapons?” By Daryl G. Kimball, Arms Control Today, July/August.
- “Political Drivers of China’s Changing Nuclear Policy: Implications for U.S.-China Nuclear Relations and International Security,” by Tong Zhao, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, July 17.
- “Air Force fires head of Sentinel ICBM program,” by Audrey Decker, Defense One, June 25.
- “The US nuclear arms control community needs a strategic plan,” by Stewart Prager, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, June 24.
- “Democrats press Pentagon for ‘unbiased’ review of costly Sentinel nuclear missile program,” by Brad Dress, The Hill, June 24.
- “The Great Powers are Itching for Another Nuclear Arms Race. Who Will Stop Them?,” by Steve Andreasen, Los Angeles Times, June 21.
- “Britain’s Embrace of the Bomb,” by Sam Knight, The New Yorker, June 20.
- “The Return of Peace Through Strength: Making the Case for Trump’s Foreign Policy,” by Robert C. O’Brien, Foreign Affairs, June 18.
- “Former Trump national security adviser urges resumption of nuclear testing,” Guardian, June 18.
- “A Titan Relying on ICBMs in a Post Cold War World,” by Eliana Johns, Ink Stick Media, June 14.
- “U.S. Considers Expanded Nuclear Arsenal, a Reversal of Decades of Cuts,” by Julian Barnes and David Sanger, The New York Times, June 7.
- “Garamendi Delivers Keynote Speech at the Arms Control Association’s Annual Meeting,” Rep. John Garamendi, June 7.
- "UN Chief Says Humanity on a Nuclear ‘Knife’s Edge’” by António Guterres, June, 7.
- “The Widespread Harm of Nuclear Testing,” by W.J. Hennigan, The New York Times, June 2.