Digests and Blog

By Kingston Reif A new report from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released today estimates that the United States will spend $348 billion on nuclear weapons over the next decade, or 5 percent to 6 percent of the total costs of the administration’s plans for national defense. But this is just the tip of the coming budget bow wave. Over the next 30 years, the bill could add up to $1 trillion, according to recent report of the National Defense Panel Review of the 2014 Quadrennial Defense Review. This planned spending encompasses a massive rebuild of all three legs of the existing nuclear…

It has been obvious for decades that advances in strategic ballistic missile defenses can complicate efforts to maintain a balance in strategic offensive forces while reducing overall nuclear arsenals. The two Cold War superpowers addressed this problem by negotiating the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty in 1972, which limited the breadth and scope of ballistic missile defense (BMD) deployments. But U.S. withdrawal from the ABM Treaty in 2002 and enthusiastic pursuit of BMD by the United States has again brought the negative impact of missile defense on nuclear arms control efforts to the…

A decades-long struggle to forge binding international rules on the trade of nearly all conventional arms transfers reached a milestone this month when the Arms Trade Treaty (ATT) formally entered into force on December 24. The ATT was opened for signature in June 2013 and since then the treaty has rapidly garnered more than 125 signatures, including all NATO countries (except Canada) and U.S. allies, such as Israel and South Korea. More than 60 states have ratified the treaty as of this month. The landmark accord, which required 50 ratifications to become international law, establishes…

In his Nov. 25 New York Times op-ed “America Mustn’t Neglect Its Nukes,” Elbridge Colby urges the nation to stop aspiring to eliminate nuclear weapons, stop worrying about nuclear deterrence, and willfully pay the trillion dollar price tag to replace the entire nuclear triad. Colby complains that apathy and even hostility toward the role of nuclear weapons in U.S. national security strategy from prominent voices in and out of government is part of the problem.  In a similar vein, Robert Spalding complains in the Washington Post that “it erodes morale and encourages perpetually low funding…

The third Conference on the Humanitarian Impact of Nuclear Weapons was held in Vienna on Dec. 8 -9, 2014. The first conference was held in Oslo, Norway, and the second was held in Nayarit, Mexico. Notably, the Vienna conference was the first conference attended by the United States. The U.S. statement, given by Special Representative of the President for Nuclear Nonproliferation Adam Scheinman, can be found here.The conferences aim to discourage the use and proliferation of nuclear weapons by discussing the dangers they pose to civilians and the general public in terms of contamination of the…

Current and former U.S. government officials and military leaders have repeatedly stated that present plans to rebuild the U.S. nuclear arsenal – which could add up to $1 trillion over the next 30 years – are unaffordable given existing budget constraints. This massive price tag comes at a time when other national security bills are coming due, Congress has mandated reductions in planned military spending, and the United States has more nuclear weapons than it needs for its security. Given this state of affairs, reshaping the current nuclear spending blueprint to comport with the fiscal and…

After days of near round-the-clock discussions, negotiators announced Monday Nov. 24 in Vienna that talks between Iran and the P5+1 (China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States) would be extended through June 30. Their aim is to complete a political agreement within the next four months, with an additional three months to work out the technical details, according to a statement delivered by P5+1 lead negotiator Catherine Ashton and Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif late on Nov. 24. Ashton and Zarif said that negotiators see a "credible path" toward a…

Flexibility Approaching the final stretch before the Nov. 24 deadline, it remains unclear as to whether or not Iran and the P5+1 (China, Germany, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States) will reach an agreement or require more time to get the job done. There is still space between the parties on uranium enrichment and the sequence of sanctions relief under a final deal. Flexibility will be required to close the remaining gaps. Today's meetings included a visit from the Austrian Foreign Minister and a bilateral meeting between Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif…

And the Ministers Descend....U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry was the first foreign minister from the P5+1 (China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States) to join the talks in Vienna. Kerry arrived at the Coburg Place last evening for a meeting with P5+1 lead negotiator Catherine Ashton and Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif. The meeting lasted over two hours. Kerry met with Zarif and Ashton again today. Also on the schedule is the arrival of British Foreign Secretary Phillip Hammond and French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabuis. They will meet with Kerry…

Four Days and Counting... With four days left before the Nov. 24 deadline, negotiators are still pushing for a deal and not discussing extension. Talks are ongoing in Vienna today, including a bilateral meeting between Russia and Iran and various technical meetings. Over the past three days, negotiators have met in a variety of formats, including several bilateral meetings between Iran and the United States. Media briefings are scarce, and it is difficult to ascertain how much progress is being made behind closed doors. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry will likely play a critical role when…