Digests and Blog

What will happen when China invades Taiwan, as so many in Washington believe is inevitable? To answer that question, the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party, an entity created at Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s behest in February, conducted a “tabletop exercise” involving a simulated attack of this sort on April 19. No official report on the closed-door exercise has been made public, but participants indicated that the outcome of such an encounter would prove catastrophic for all parties involved. Committee members were confronted “with the potential for death and destruction on…

Inside the Arms Control Association April 2023 As Russia’s disastrous war against Ukraine enters its second year, the destruction and bloodshed continue. Despite the enormous human toll of the war, Moscow is still trying to seize more Ukrainian territory and Kyiv is still fighting hard to retake its Russian-occupied lands.  As a result, a negotiated and lasting end to the war is not yet in sight. As long as the war continues, there is a serious risk of escalation, including further nuclear threats from the Kremlin. To help prevent a bad situation from becoming even worse, our team here at…

Russia confirmed a month after it suspended the 2010 New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) that it has cut off transmitting treaty-required data on Russian strategic nuclear forces to the United States. “All forms of notifications, all data exchange, all inspection activities, in general, all types of work under the treaty are suspended,” stated Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov March 29. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov maintained March 28 that Moscow will continue to adhere to New START’s central limits of no more than 1,550 strategic warheads deployed on…

Earlier this month, Rafael Grossi, the director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, or IAEA, traveled to Tehran amid growing concern over the proliferation risk posed by Iran’s expanding nuclear activities. In particular, the IAEA had recently detected uranium enriched to 84 percent in an Iranian nuclear site, at a time of heightened tensions due to the breakdown in multilateral talks on reviving the Iran nuclear deal. During Grossi’s trip, Iran agreed to allow the IAEA to reestablish certain transparency measures at select nuclear sites. Iran had suspended IAEA access and…

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has inflicted much suffering, amplified international divisions, and made any attempt to build common security extremely difficult. Moscow’s war on Ukraine also hobbled several arms control and security agreements—including, now, the Vienna Document. Hosted by the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), the Vienna Document is a confidence- and security-building mechanism that allows participants to observe and notify each other about their military exercises and other relevant activities to prevent misinterpretation of each other’s…

Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency agreed March 4 to increase monitoring of the country’s nuclear program. While any additional transparency is a positive step, it is difficult to determine how beneficial the new measures will be as the details of the agreement remain to be negotiated.According to the statement released by the IAEA and the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI), Tehran committed to allow the agency to “implement further appropriate verification and monitoring activities” on a “voluntary basis.” The agreement was reached during IAEA Director General Rafael…

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)’s recent detection of uranium enriched to near weapons-grade levels in Iran should send a strong message to the United States and Europe that it is necessary to ratchet up diplomatic efforts to reduce the risk of a nuclear-armed Iran. While the spike in enrichment did lead the agency to begin negotiations on additional transparency measures with Iran, these steps alone are insufficient to mitigate the growing proliferation threat and stabilize the current crisis. It is imperative that the United States look to build on the positive momentum…

Inside the Arms Control AssociationMarch 2023In a rambling Feb. 21 speech attempting to justify Russia's illegal invasion of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced his decision to “suspend” implementation of New START, the last remaining treaty limiting the world's two largest nuclear arsenals.While this does not mark the end of the treaty, Putin’s announcement makes it far more likely that, after New START expires Feb. 5, 2026, there will be no agreement limiting U.S. and Russian strategic nuclear arsenals for the first time since 1972.Despite Russia’s failure to comply with New…

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s calamitous invasion of Ukraine has killed at least tens of thousands, displaced millions, and disrupted countless lives around the globe. Putin’s implied threats to use nuclear weapons against any who would interfere, have also raised fears of a nuclear conflict in ways not seen since the end of the cold war. Now, Putin is backing away from the last remaining bilateral treaty capping Russian and U.S. nuclear arsenals, the world’s two largest. The decision could open the door to an unconstrained, destabilizing and dangerous global arms race involving Russia…

Russia has failed to fully comply with the 2010 New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) because of its refusal to allow on-site inspections and to reschedule a meeting to discuss treaty concerns, according to a U.S. assessment released in January. Senior Russian officials have accused the United States of “politicizing nuclear arms control,” saying that Washington “would have to adjust its policy towards Russia to move to a constructive arms control agenda.” In August, Moscow prohibited U.S. on-site inspections of its nuclear weapons-related facilities subject to the treaty over…