Digests and Blog

The 2010 New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) between the United States and Russia is set to expire in February 2021. Although the two nations could extend the treaty by up to five years (and there is bipartisan congressional support for such a step), the future of New START remains uncertain, in part because the Trump administration wants to include China in any future arms control deal. Integrating China further into international nuclear arms control efforts is a worthy goal, but extending New START should not hinge on China’s participation. Given China’s relatively…

U.S. Withdraws from INF Treaty; Missile Tests to Begin This Month On Aug. 2, 2019, the United States formally withdrew from the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, prompting harsh reactions from Russia and China and concerns about the beginning of a new, more dangerous phase of global military competition. This treaty, signed in 1987, led to the elimination of 2,692 U.S. and Soviet Union nuclear and conventional ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles with ranges between 500 and 5,500 kilometers. The United States accused Russia of violating the treaty by testing,…

Last month, after lengthy deliberations and debate, the House of Representatives voted on its version of the fiscal year 2020 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA). The bill incorporates a number of provisions, supported by the Arms Control Association, that would place a much-needed check on the Trump administration’s unnecessary, unsustainable, and unsafe nuclear weapons plans. The House version of the defense authorization bill: prohibits the deployment of a new and more usable low-yield warhead for submarine-launched ballistic missiles as proposed in the Trump administration’s…

Russian pursuit of the 9M729 intermediate-range missile, which is banned under the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, is unacceptable and merits a strong response. But NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg’s formula, as expressed in a new op-ed published in the German-language Frankfurter Allgemeine, is inadequate. In his July 14 essay, the Secretary-General embraces the Trump administration’s decision to terminate the treaty August 2 without a realistic plan to help resolve the long-running compliance dispute. This move, combined with the possibility of new U.S. ground-…

This blog post originally appeared on the U.S. Institute of Peace's "The Iran Primer," July 8, 2019.  Since July 1, Iran has engaged in two breaches of the 2015 nuclear deal. On July 1, it increased its stockpile of low-enriched uranium above the 300-kilogram limit. On July 8, it increased enrichment from the limit of 3.67 percent to 4.5 percent. Iran had previously complied with the agreement, even after President Trump abandoned it in May 2018. What do Iran’s decisions mean for the future of the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action)? Iran’s decision to breach the 300-kilogram limit…

With Further Nuclear Moves, Iran Seeks to Leverage Promised Sanctions Relief Iran announced July 8 that it has started enriching uranium at levels in excess of the limit of 3.67 percent uranium-235 set by the 2015 nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The move is the second troubling retaliatory measure in two weeks by Iran to walk back its compliance with the JCPOA. Last week, Iran exceeded the 300-kilogram limit of its stockpile of low enriched uranium set by the JCPOA. Iran’s moves to curtail compliance with the JCPOA have long been expected. Iranian…

Trump and Kim Agree to Resume TalksU.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un met at the demilitarized zone (DMZ) separating North and South Korea June 30 and agreed to restart negotiations on denuclearization and peacebuilding in the region. Trump was in South Korea for talks with President Moon Jae-in and had planned to visit the DMZ, but his invitation to Kim to meet at the border was publicly announced in a last-minute tweet June 28.It is unclear if the impromptu meeting, which included Moon, will actually put negotiations back on track. Trump and Kim said their…

A top U.S. intelligence official publicly accused Russia in May of not complying with the 1996 Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), raising concerns that the Trump administration may be considering withdrawing from another multilateral arms control agreement. The allegation is a significant shift from recent U.S. government and intelligence community assessments.“Russia probably is not adhering to its nuclear testing moratorium in a manner consistent with the ‘zero-yield’ standard” outlined in the CTBT, said Lt. Gen. Robert Ashley, the director of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), in…

The bi-annual Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) Science and Technology Conference (SnT2019) took place June 24-28 at the Hofburg Palace in Vienna. The conference brought together over one thousand participants, representing the most diverse regions of the world, and gathered their ideas and perspectives at the conference grounds.The first conference day highlighted several pertinent topics, such as: youth as the advocates of progress towards CTBT ratification, gender equality in the science and technology field, and the role of expert communities in arms control…

Having unilaterally abandoned and violated the 2015 multilateral nuclear deal that has rolled-back Iran's nuclear activities, the Trump administration is now engaged in a series of escalations with Iran that could lead to another disastrous war in the Middle East. Though President Trump pulled back and reversed his own order to strike targets in Iran last week, the risk of conflict remains high. The Arms Control Association joined other pro-diplomacy organizations urging the Senate to vote on a bipartisan amendment from Sen. Tom Udall (D-New Mexico) to the National Defense Authorization…