Sparking a Buildup: U.S. Missile Defense and China's Nuclear Arsenal

by Charles Ferguson

Tables Accompanying Text

Table 1: Additional Chinese ICBM Warheads, Based on Expected NMD Plans and Firing Doctrines (Rounded to the Nearest Warhead)

NMD Phase
Firing Doctrine	C-1 (20-100 Interceptors)	C-2 (100 Interceptors)	C-3 (Up to 250 Interceptors)
Shoot-Look-Shoot	10-50	50	125
Barrage	5-25	25	63
Single Shot	20-100	100	250

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Table 2: Re-entry Vehicle (RV) Characteristics of American ICBMs

ICBM	RV Yield [kt] (Warhead Type)	Number of RVs	Throw Weight [kg]	RV Weight [kg]
MX/Peacekeeper	300-335 (W87)	10	3,950	200
Minuteman III	335 (W78); 170 (W62)	3	1,100	185
D-5/Trident II	475 (W88)	8	2,800	175
C-4/Trident I	100 (W76)	8	1,500	95
C-3/Poseidon<21>	40 (W68)	14	2,000	70

Sources: John R. Harvey and Stefan Michalowski, "Nuclear Weapons Safety: The Case of Trident," Science & Global Security, Volume 4, Issue 3 (1994), p. 288, in which they use throw-weight values from teh START Memorandum of Understanding to calculate RV weight by assuming that the bus that carries the RVs is about one half the throw weight. Some warhead yield values are from Rovert S. Norris and William M. Arkin, "U.S. Strategic Nuclear Forces, End of 1997," The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, January/February 1998, p. 71.

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Table 3: Upper Limits on Multiple Warheads for Chinese Solid-Fueled Missiles

Missile	Throw Weight [kg]	RVs for 175 kg RV (W88 type)	RVs for 70 kg RV (W68 type)
DF-21/JL-1	600	1	4
DF-31/JL-2	700	2	5
DF-41	800-1,000	2-3	5-7

Sources: Throw-weight estimates are from John Lewis and Hua Di, International Security, Fall 1992, p. 5-40, and Tracking and Nuclear Proliferation: A Guide in Maps and Charts, 1998, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, except for the upper bound on the DF-41 from the Federation of American Scientists.

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