As 190 countries meet in New York this month to discuss the implementation of the nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT), a number of steps can be taken to accelerate the pace of disarmament and ensure that the world’s most dangerous weapon do not spread. The NPT, which entered into force in March of 1970, is the most comprehensive nuclear arms control agreement in the world.
The NPT divides the 190 party members into two groups. Five countries are recognized in the NPT as nuclear-weapon states and have committed to disarm all existing nuclear weapons. These states are the United States, Russia, China, France, and the United Kingdom. All other members fall under the second classification, non-nuclear-weapon states, and have committed not to obtain nuclear weapons, and in return, receive assistance in developing the peaceful use of nuclear energy.
The 2015 NPT Review Conference offers an opportunity to review the progress made to date and set new goals to work toward the elimination of nuclear weapons.
Under the NPT, significant progress towards decreasing the number of nuclear weapons has been made since the treaty entered into force. U.S. documents submitted to the 2015 NPT Review Conference state that the U.S. nuclear weapons stockpile has dropped from 31,225 in 1967 to 4,717 in 2015. Globally, the stockpile has decreased from its height of around 65,000 in 1986 to 20,190 today. These numbers are a testament to the treaty’s significance. But more work remains to be done.
The treaty has also created confidence-building measures between both the nuclear-weapon states and non-nuclear-weapon states. These measures include frequent reports submitted to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on the status of nuclear programs around the world, monitoring and verification systems and a platform to discuss nuclear disarmament and nonproliferation issues. That platform is provided every five years at the NPT review conference.
Notable Achievements 2010-Present
Several small steps on disarmament have been made since the last review conference in 2010, although many non-nuclear weapon states argue that the pace of disarmament is too slow. In February of 2011, the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) entered in to force. The treaty between the United States and Russia is to decrease the amount of deployed nuclear warheads that each country can have to 1,550 each. New START also reduces the U.S. and Russian number of deployed intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), deployed submarine launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and deployed bombers carrying nuclear armaments to 700. Lastly, the treaty slashes both countries’ number of non-deployed ICBM launchers, SLBM launchers, and nuclear-capable heavy bombers to 800. The downturn in U.S.-Russian relations may stall future implementation of the treaty. While there has been some discussion in Moscow that the Ukraine crisis may jeopardize New START, Russian officials state they remain committed to the treaty. Another threat to New START could come from the U.S. Congress. House republicans have previously voted to defund New START implementation.
In June of 2011, the United Kingdom began working towards voluntary reductions to its nuclear arsenal. In a Strategic Defense Security Review Conference held in 2010, British Prime Minister David Cameron said the U.K. would reduce the number of British warheads from around 160 to around 140. These reductions included decreasing UK SLBMs from 48 warheads on each submarine down to 40. Mr. Cameron said these reductions provided a “continuous and effective minimum nuclear deterrent that will stand constant guard over” the United Kingdom's national security.
Significant steps are also being taken to prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons. On November 24, 2013 Iran and the P5+1 (China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States) reached an interim agreement in Geneva, Switzerland. The agreement temporarily removed a variety of sanctions against Iran in exchange for rolling back the elements of its nuclear program of most proliferation concern. It was the first formal arrangement between the United States and Iran in 34 years. The agreement laid a necessary foundation for increased dialog between Iran and the West. On April 2, 2015 the P5+1 and Iran reached a tentative framework agreement that places meaningful limits on Iran’s nuclear program. This framework would substantially reduce the amount of uranium enrichment in Iran by prohibiting enrichment in Fordow and constraining enrichment in Natanz.
In May of 2014 the protocol for the Central Asian Nuclear Weapon Free Zone was signed by the five declared nuclear weapons states. The zone prohibits the development of nuclear weapons in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. The zone entered in to force in 2009 but was not signed by the five nuclear-weapon states. Since the 2010 NPT Review Conference, France and the United Kingdom have ratified the protocol respecting the zone. The United States announced at the 2010 conference it was submitting the protocol to the Senate for advice and consent. Currently, over half of Earth’s land mass is contained in nuclear-weapon-free zones and approximately 34 of the world’s population lives in these zones.
Hopeful Outcomes Of the 2015 NPT Review Conference
Despite the successes of the NPT, there is still much work that needs to be done. U.S.-Russian relations stymie the prospect for future progress on nuclear disarmament. Russia, China and the United States are investing substantial resources to modernize their existing nuclear weapons. A 2014 report by the James Martin Nuclear Center concluded that the United States will spend over a trillion dollars in the next thirty years modernizing and maintaining its nuclear arsenal. Additionally, countries like North Korea, Pakistan, and India are continuing to build up their nuclear arsenals outside of the NPT while the rest of the world disarms and commits to stopping the spread of nuclear weapons.
The review conferences offer a unique opportunity to strengthen international transparency and assurances. These bolstering measures should include enhanced guidelines for conference documents. The national reports submitted to the 2014 NPT Prep Conference differed substantially from country to country. China’s report provides no numbers regarding how many nuclear weapons they have or plan to have. Both Russian and U.S. reports failed to provide meaningful disarmament details. The U.S. report said that it had “retired many thousands of nuclear warheads” that are in que for disarmament. Given these discrepancies the conference needs to build a common reporting framework.
The 2015 review conference could also provide a forum for strengthening U.S.-Russia negotiations. Both countries should affirm commitments to New START and push for follow up talks. Obama said in 2013 that he was willing to reduce nuclear weapons to a third of New START levels. The conference should push both Russia and the United States to engage in further talks to continue the legacy of New START.
The NPT community must also put pressure on China to join meaningful discussions on disarmament and agree to greater transparency regarding its arsenal.
Lastly, nuclear-armed states should take steps to decrease their nuclear response threshold. Though the Cold War ended decades ago, the possibility for inadvertent nuclear war continues to this day. The review conference should produce changes in nuclear doctrine from nuclear-weapon states to reduce the threat of nuclear war by implementing no-first-use policies.
While the treaty remains a success, the changing global environment poses new challenges to the treaty that counties must rise to meet.
Timeline:
A number of significant events related to the NPT have taken place since 2010. A list is below. To see the full timeline, click here.
April 2010: The United States hosts the first Nuclear Security Summit in Washington. At the summit, the 47 participating states commit to securing nuclear material worldwide and combating the threat of nuclear terrorism and many states make specific commitments to bolster nuclear security.
November 2010: President Barack Obama announces U.S. support for India’s participation in the Nuclear Suppliers Group, the Wassenaar Arrangement, the Australia Group and the Missile Technology Control Regime. In December of 2010, French President Nicolas Sarkozy also expresses backing for India’s inclusion in the Nuclear Suppliers Group.
February 5, 2011: New START enters into force. The United States and Russia agree to reduce strategic and offensive arms. The treaty’s central limits must be reached by February 5, 2018. New START reduces the number of deployed nuclear warheads that each state can have to 1,550 each.
June 2011: The United Kingdom announces voluntary planned reductions in its deployed nuclear forces to be accomplished by early 2015. When complete, the United Kingdom will have 120 deployed strategic warheads, with 60 warheads in reserve to support the maintenance and management of the operational force. All excess warheads will be dismantled by the mid-2020s.
March 2012: The second Nuclear Security Summit is held in Seoul, South Korea. The summit built on the commitments of the previous 2010 summit and adds new goals, such as protecting radioactive sources and increasing the synergy between nuclear security and safety.
November 2012: The conveners (Russia, the United Kingdom, the United States and the UN) of a conference to establish a weapons of mass destruction free zone in the Middle East announce that the conference will be postponed because not all states in the region agree on an agenda for the conference.
December 2012: North Korea successfully launches a satellite into space with an Unha-3 space launch vehicle. Pyongyang is prohibited from space launches by UN Security Council resolutions because some of the technology is directly applicable to ballistic missile development. Despite this success, experts assess that North Korea remains years away from development of an ICBM, given the many technical differences between the two types of systems.3
February 12, 2013: North Korea conducts their third nuclear test. The test was done at the Punggye-ri Test Site in an underground bunker. In a KCNA statement, issued shortly after the test, Pyongyang says it will continue testing and building its arsenal until the United States recognized its right to launch satellites and develop its nuclear program.
March 2013: Norway hosts the first Conference on the Humanitarian Impact of Nuclear Weapons, with participation from 127 states. The conference focused on scientific findings on the impact of nuclear weapons use on humans, the environment, and global climate. The five recognized nuclear weapon states (China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States) all decide not to attend.
November 24, 2013: Iran and the P5+1 reach an interim agreement in Geneva, Switzerland. The agreement creates a temporary hold on several aspects of Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for temporary relief on several Western sanctions. The Interim Agreement represents the first formal agreement between the United States and Iran in 34 years. The agreement laid the foundation for the on-going P5+1 talks.
February 2013: A second conference on the Humanitarian Impact of Nuclear Weapons is held in Mexico, with 146 states in attendance. The conference called for greater efforts on disarmament and an initiative to reach new international standards and norms to prohibit the use of nuclear weapons. The nuclear weapon states do not participate in the conference.
March 2014: The third Nuclear Security Summit is held in The Hague, Netherlands to continue the goal of strengthening nuclear security and eliminating civilian stockpiles of weapons-usable material.
May 2014: All five nuclear weapon states sign the protocol for the Central Asian Nuclear Weapons Free Zone treaty. The zone applies to Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.
November 2014: France ratifies the Central Asian Nuclear Weapons Free Zone treaty.
December 2014: A third conference on the Humanitarian Impact of Nuclear Weapons is held in Vienna. The United States and the United Kingdom decide to attend. China choses to send an observer. Over 150 countries and several international and civil society organizations participate. Over 60 countries sign a pledge to cooperate to “stigmatize, prohibit, and eliminate” nuclear weapons.
January 2015: The United Kingdom ratifies the Central Asian Nuclear Weapons Free Zone treaty.
April 2, 2015: A tentative framework agreement is reached by the P5+1 and Iran. The agreement places meaningful limits on Iran’s nuclear program by prohibiting uranium enrichment in Fordow and constraining enrichment at the Natanz facility. A final agreement is set to be reached by June 30, 2015.