Nuclear Disarmament Monitor
November 14, 2024
The Nov. 5 re-election of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency will create new challenges and some limited opportunities for nuclear disarmament. In his first term, the president-elect endorsed the development and deployment of new nuclear weapons and elevated the role of nuclear deterrence in U.S. military strategy. Trump pursued an ill-fated attempt to bring China into the U.S.-Russian arms control framework, creating uncertainty about a five-year extension of New START that was ultimately endorsed by the Biden administration. But, the former president’s instinct for deal-making and high-level diplomacy also created fleeting opportunities for direct talks with other nuclear weapons states.
In 2025, Trump will face the consequences of the nuclear policy decisions from his first term. After lowering the perceived willingness of the United States to rely on nuclear deterrence in the Asia-Pacific, Trump’s team will have to consider how to address China’s response, which has been to quickly expand its strategic nuclear arsenal.
By adding programs to U.S. strategic modernization plans as called for in his 2018 Nuclear Posture Review, Trump raised the bill of that acquisition effort. The Congressional Budget Office now estimates U.S. nuclear forces will cost $756 billion over the coming decade. Several Republican leaders have proposed that the United States prepare to increase the size and diversity of the U.S. nuclear arsenal even further to contend with two “near-peer” nuclear competitors.
With negotiations on extending tax cuts on Congress’ horizon, increasing pressures on conventional military acquisition programs within the defense budget, and a razor-thin House majority, a ballooning nuclear modernization account will be an unwelcome headache that will persist throughout Trump’s second term in office.
The most pressing priority, however, remains the fast-approaching end of New START in February 2026 and decisions by the Kremlin and the White House about how to manage their strategic nuclear relationship and prevent a quantitative arms race.
While the president-elect boasts of a strong personal relationship with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, there are formidable challenges inherent in an arms control negotiation between long-time rivals saddled by a history of grievances and suspicions.
In remarks Nov. 8 at the Valdai Discussion Club’s plenary session, Putin said: "We will see how a new future US administration will be formulating its proposals on this matter, if at all. Russia, Putin said, is basically ready for a dialogue on strategic stability, but "it is necessary for the other side to approach it honestly, with due regard for all aspects of relations."
If Trump wants to begin his presidency with a high-profile diplomatic victory, he could defuse the risk of a nuclear buildup by Russia after New START expires by offering to maintain U.S. deployed nuclear forces at a level consistent with New START limits beyond that treaty’s duration, as long as the Russian Federation does the same.
—Xiaodon Liang, senior policy analyst; Shizuka Kuramitsu, research assistant; Libby Flatoff, operations and program assistant; Doniyor Mutalov, policy and research intern.
UN Member States Conclude Annual One-month Disarmament Discussion
The UN General Assembly’s disarmament committee successfully concluded its work after a one-month session, adopting 77 draft resolutions and decisions to renew its commitment to advancing disarmament and maintaining international peace and security.
Amid rising geopolitical tensions and deepening polarization between states, UN members gathered Oct. 7 to Nov. 8 in New York for an annual meeting of the UN General Assembly subsidiary body focused on disarmament and international security issues, known as the First Committee.
Among the newly approved draft resolutions was one introduced by New Zealand and Ireland to establish an independent scientific panel on the effects of nuclear war (A/C.1/79/L.39). The independent scientific panel will consist of 21 members, who will be “tasked with examining the physical effects and societal consequences of a nuclear war on a local, regional and planetary scale.”
Reacting to expectations that some nuclear-armed states and allies under their nuclear umbrellas were considering voting against or abstaining from the resolution on the scientific panel, civil society experts in the United States and the United Kingdom called for their respective governments to support the resolution. It was ultimately adopted with the support of 144 states. The United Kingdom voted against it, along with France and Russia, while the United States and another 29 states abstained.
Unlike other multilateral disarmament forums, the First Committee adopts resolutions by a majority vote, and not by consensus.
Another resolution that passed the First Committee, advanced by Argentina, Japan, and the United States, seeks to reaffirm the principle laid out in the Outer Space Treaty that states shall not deploy weapons of mass destruction in outer space (A/C.1/79/L.7/Rev.1). The resolution “affirms the obligation of all States parties to fully comply with the Outer Space Treaty, including not to place in orbit around the Earth any objects carrying nuclear weapons or any other kinds of weapons of mass destruction, install such weapons on celestial bodies, or station such weapons in outer space in any other manner,” and “not to develop nuclear weapons or any other kinds of weapons of mass destruction specifically designed to be placed in orbit around the Earth, to be installed on celestial bodies, or to be stationed in outer space in any other manner.”
Russia submitted two amendments to the resolution which were strongly opposed by the original sponsors. Both Russian amendments were rejected by the committee, and the original resolution passed by 159 votes in favor and 5 votes against, with 6 abstentions.
The first committee was chaired by the Costa Rican Ambassador to the UN, Maritza Chan, who served as the first female chair of the committee.
“As conflicts rage across regions and tensions rise in many corners of the world, it is more important than ever to work together in the pursuit of non-proliferation, disarmament, arms control and sustainable peace,” said Chan at the concluding session on Nov. 8.
House Members Speak Out on Nuclear Weapons Issues
On Nov. 13, the U.S. House of Representatives held a special order hour on nuclear weapons, organized by Rep. Jim McGovern (D-Mass.). Nine members of the House joined McGovern to give speeches on a range of topics associated with nuclear nonproliferation, arms control, and disarmament.
“I rise today to focus on one of the most serious issues of our time – the increasing threat of nuclear weapons…Today we face the challenge that the only remaining arms control agreement between the U.S.rec and Russia, New [Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty], expires in February 2026," McGovern said. “The world stands at the brink of a nuclear arms race with no guardrails or no limits,” he warned.
The nine other members of the House who took the floor were Bill Foster, John Garamendi, Don Beyer, Jr., Dina Titus, Chellie Pingree, Rashida Tlaib, Dalia Ramirez, and Mark DeSaulinier.
In their speeches, many expressed alarm at the unprecedented nuclear threats posed by rising geopolitical tensions and its catastrophic consequences, emphasized the importance of halting the accelerating arms race through negotiations and diplomacy, and called for bipartisan efforts to uphold nuclear nonproliferation and disarmament, pointing to cost overruns in the nuclear weapons budget.
Rep. Titus spoke on the devastating impacts of nuclear testing in Nevada and across the United States and warned of any consideration of a resumption of nuclear testing. “Those in favor of resuming nuclear testing under the principles of ‘peace through strength’ are merely contributing to additional nuclear risks and challenges to strategic stability.”
“The result will put us on a collision course of catastrophic proportions, with Russia and China. It will undermine the entire arms control regime, allow for the proliferation of these weapons to non-nuclear states, and it will put the health of Nevadans once again in jeopardy,” said Titus.
The U.S. House of Representatives allows its members to reserve an hour for speeches on issues of their choosing after normal business. This special order hour was organized by the office of Rep. McGovern with the support of the Congressional Nuclear Weapons and Arms Control Working Group.
View a video recording of the special order speeches here.
P5 Nuclear Weapons States Meet to Discuss Chinese Work Plan
The five permanent members of the UN Security Council, the P5, which all possess nuclear weapons, held a working-level meeting in New York on Oct. 10, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced. China currently serves as the rotating chair of the P5 process, and the October meeting was the first held since China took over the role from the Russian Federation. During the meeting, the “parties exchanged views on the work plan,” the Chinese foreign ministry reported.
Aegis Missile Defense System Active in Poland, Downsized in Guam
Several months after NATO inaugurated operations of the land-based Aegis Ashore midcourse missile defense system at Redzikowo, Poland, the U.S. Missile Defense Agency revealed that the footprint of the Aegis Ashore system planned for a different site on the island of Guam would be downsized.
The Redzikowo site is the final component of the Obama administration’s European Phased Adaptive Approach (EPAA) to regional missile defense, and began operations in July. In late October, a draft environmental impact statement published by the Missile Defense Agency revealed that the Aegis Ashore system planned for the Pacific island of Guam, a U.S. territory, would be reduced to 16 sites, down from 35 planned. Public comments on the draft impact statement must be submitted by Jan. 8, 2025.
The Aegis missile defense system was initially fielded on U.S. naval vessels but was later reconfigured for land-based deployment as part of EPAA. The Aegis system is designed to shoot down short-, medium-, and intermediate-range missiles, but was tested against an intercontinental ballistic missile target in November 2020.
Putin Calls Nuclear Weapons an “Extreme Measure” before Annual Exercises
In Oct. 29 comments marking the commencement of annual Russian strategic forces exercises, Russian President Vladimir Putin said “the use of nuclear weapons is an extreme, exceptional measure for ensuring state security.”
This statement comes a month after a major speech by the Russian president highlighting changes to Russia’s declaratory policy. These changes have been interpreted by some foreign analysts as a significant lowering of Russia’s threshold for nuclear use. In his Oct. 29 statement, Putin also said that Russia does “not intend to be drawn in a new arms race.”
Disarmament Calendar
- Nov.18-22: Fifth Conference on the Establishment of a Middle East Zone Free of Nuclear Weapons and Other Weapons of Mass Destruction, New York
- Dec. 3-6: Meeting of the Nuclear Security Guidance Committee (NSGC), Vienna
- Jan. 1: 74th Anniversary of the UN Disarmament Commission
- Jan. 3: 23rd Anniversary of the START II Treaty
- Jan. 20: U.S. Presidential Inauguration Day, Washington D.C.
- Jan. 22: Fourth anniversary of the entry into force of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons
In Case You Missed It
“Governments urged to ‘stop gambling with humanity’s future’ and eliminate nuclear weapons,” United Nations, Sept. 26, 2024
"Steps to Move Us Back from the Nuclear Brink," by Daryl Kimball, Arms Control Association, Sept. 26.
“OPINION: Nevada has already passed the test,” by Ernest J. Moniz, The Nevada Independent, Oct. 16, 2024.
“The Nuclear Brain Trust,” by Anthony Lake and Steven Andreasen, Foreign Affairs, Oct. 24.
“Say no to nuclear testing in Nevada,” by Rose Gottemoeller, Las Vegas Sun, Oct. 29.
“Will Iran Withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty?,” by Jamie Kwong and Nicole Grajewski, War on the Rocks, Nov. 1.
“UN to conduct new study of the broad impacts of nuclear war. Not all countries want to know,” by François Diaz-Maurin, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, Nov. 5.
“Minuteman III Test Launch Showcases Readiness of U.S. Nuclear Force’s Safe, Effective Deterrent,” by Space Launch Delta 30 Public Affairs, Nov. 6.
“Explainer: Why nuclear weapons will be on Trump's agenda,” by Jonathan Landay, Nov. 8.
“Trump, Putin could agree on limits of nuclear warheads — US expert,” TASS, Nov. 11.
“Why America Can’t Afford A New Nuclear Buildup In 2025,” by William Hartung, Forbes, Nov. 12.
“Beyond a Human “In the Loop”: Strategic Stability and Artificial Intelligence,” by Michael Klare and Xiaodon Liang, Arms Control Association Issue Brief, Nov. 12.