Statement by Daryl G. Kimball, Executive Director, and Kelsey Davenport, Nonproliferation Policy Director
October 2, 2024
The Arms Control Association strongly condemns Iran’s Oct. 1 ballistic missile attack against Israel in response to Israel's bombardment of targets in Lebanon, its assassination of Hezbollah leaders, and its rejection of international appeals for a cease fire. The dangerous, irresponsible tit-for-tat actions by both Israel and Iran endanger civilians and risk igniting a broader war.
Further escalation, particularly retaliatory strikes against Iranian nuclear infrastructure, could also push Tehran to develop nuclear weapons.
Iran already has the knowledge necessary to build a nuclear explosive device—that knowledge cannot be bombed away. Any setback in Iran’s nuclear capabilities would be temporary and would likely lead Iran to rebuild its program and further harden its facilities against future attacks. More concerningly, military strikes could push Iran to withdraw from the nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and pursue nuclear weapons.
Furthermore, threats to Iranian nuclear facilities increase the risk that Tehran closes its nuclear sites to international inspectors, citing security risks. A further reduction in monitoring increases the risk of Iran diverting materials to a covert program or attempting to break out between inspections. Now, more than ever, more intrusive and regular International Atomic Energy Agency inspections of all Iranian nuclear facilities are critical.
A nuclear-armed Iran is not inevitable—despite the country advancing to the threshold of nuclear weapons in the aftermath of the Trump administration's decision to unilaterally back out of the 2015 nuclear deal, or Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. But the risk of Iran pursuing a nuclear weapon will increase if conflict intensifies.
In the coming hours and days, the Biden administration, European leaders, and states in the Middle East, must redouble efforts to prevent further escalation between Iran and Israel, condemn threats to strike Iranian nuclear facilities in retaliation for the Oct. 1 missile strikes, and condemn any statements from Iranian leaders about acquiring nuclear weapons, which only serve to undermine the security of states in the troubled Middle East region.