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Tehran’s recent acceleration of proliferation-sensitive activities increases the risk that the United States or Israel perceive its actions as a step toward weaponization, which could trigger military action or prompt Washington to ratchet up economic and political pressure on Iran even further.

The IAEA Board of Governors censured Iran for failing to cooperate with the agency, despite Tehran signaling it would freeze its stockpile of uranium enriched to near-weapons grade levels.

Prior to Israel’s retaliatory attack, President Joe Biden said that the United States would not support Israeli strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities. 

Experts Dismiss Speculation Over Iran Nuclear Testing

The Arms Control Association strongly condemns Iran’s Oct. 1 ballistic missile attack against Israel in response to Israel's bombardment of targets in Lebanon, its assassination of Hezbollah leaders, and its rejection of international appeals for a cease fire.

The next U.S. president will need to move swiftly to engage Tehran because the door for diplomacy may not remain open for long.

The newly-elected president, Masoud Pezeshkian, faces immense pressure to revive Iran's economy.

 The United States accused Iran of sending ballistic missiles to Russia, but Iran denied the accusation. 

Masoud Pezeshkian made his overture to the United States and other key countries in his first address to the General Assembly since being elected Iran’s new leader in July.  

The Biden administration says it is looking for Tehran’s new leadership to demonstrate first that it intends to take a different approach to negotiations.  

It is unclear how much latitude Iran's new president will have in shaping Tehran’s relations with the West after he takes office in August. It is unlikely that the country’s nuclear policy, which is determined by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, will shift significantly from its current trajectory.

Preventing a nuclear-armed Iran remains a top U.S. security objective, but in recent months Tehran has accelerated its sensitive nuclear activities and threatened to pursue nuclear weapons, creating significant new challenges for addressing proliferation risks.

The censure reaffirms the International Atomic Energy Agency Board of Governor decision that it is “essential and urgent” for Iran to clarify “all outstanding safeguards issues.” 

U.S. presidential leadership may be the most important factor in whether the risk of nuclear arms racing, proliferation, and war will rise or fall in the years ahead. 

A roundtable discussion with Nicole Grajewski, Sina Toossi, and Ali Vaez.