Iran Ramps Up Nuclear Program Ahead of Trump’s Return

January/February 2025
By Kelsey Davenport

Iran significantly expanded its production of uranium enriched to near weapons-grade levels in what appears to be a move to build leverage ahead of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump taking office on Jan. 20.

According to a Dec. 6 report from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Iran’s monthly production of uranium enriched to 60 percent U-235 at the Fordow uranium-enrichment facility will jump from 4.7 kilograms to 34 kilograms. The increase is due to Iran’s decision to feed 20 percent-enriched U-235 into two cascades of more efficient IR-6 centrifuges to produce the 60 percent-enriched U-235. Previously, Iran fed the centrifuges with uranium enriched to 5 percent U-235.

Uranium enriched to 60 percent U-235 poses a more serious proliferation risk because it can quickly be enriched to the 90 percent U-235 that is considered weapons grade. If Iran made the decision to develop a nuclear weapon, it would need to feed about 42 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent U-235 into centrifuges to produce enough 90 percent-enriched U-235 for one bomb. Increasing the production of 60 percent U-235 at Fordow, rather than Iran’s other uranium-enrichment facility at Natanz, further heightens the threat because Fordow is a deeply buried site that is challenging to target militarily.

France, Germany, and the United Kingdom condemned Iran’s actions in a joint Dec. 9 statement and strongly urged Iran to “reverse these steps” and “immediately halt its nuclear escalation.” The statement also raised concerns that Iran took the actions before the IAEA could implement additional safeguards.

According to the IAEA report on Dec. 6, Iran did not agree to IAEA Director-General Rafael Mariano Grossi’s request to hold off on increasing its production of uranium enriched to 60 percent U-235 until after the agency could update its safeguards approach. The agency reported on Dec. 11 that Tehran agreed to “increase the frequency and intensity” of IAEA safeguards at Fordow and the agency implemented those measures.

Iran is required under its legally binding safeguards agreement to allow the IAEA to increase verification activities as its nuclear program expands.

Despite the implementation of additional safeguards, the United States raised concerns before the UN Security Council that Iran’s actions “suggest it is not interested in demonstrating verifiably that its nuclear program is exclusively peaceful.” U.S. deputy ambassador Robert Wood told the council on Dec. 17 that there is “good reason to be concerned about Tehran’s intentions” and Iran should “take actions that build international confidence and deescalate tensions.”

Iran’s decision to increase production of uranium enriched to 60 percent U-235 followed a notification to the IAEA that the state would begin enriching uranium using an additional 45 cascades of advanced centrifuges. The IAEA reported on Nov. 29 that the cascades would be used to enrich uranium to 5 percent U-235.

Iran first announced its intentions to expand enrichment capacity after the IAEA Board of Governors censured the state for failing to cooperate with the agency. (See ACT, December 2024.)

Iran did not indicate when it would begin operating the additional machines and will need to install additional centrifuges to meet that goal. According to an IAEA report on Iran’s nuclear program dated Nov. 19, Iran was operating 78 cascades, but nearly half of them were the less efficient, more crash-prone IR-1 machines. Iran has an additional 30 cascades of advanced centrifuges that are installed but not being used to enrich uranium.

The  IAEA report on Dec. 6 confirmed that Iran began operating two additional cascades of IR-6 centrifuges installed at Fordow. The machines will produce uranium enriched to 5 percent U-235, according to the IAEA. The report did not indicate if Iran had begun operating any additional centrifuges at Natanz.

Iran’s nuclear activities appear focused on gaining leverage for negotiating a deal with the incoming Trump administration, but the increase in uranium enrichment to 60 percent U-235 and the expansion of Iran’s enrichment capacity allow Iran to move more quickly to produce nuclear material for weapons at a time when Iranian policymakers are debating openly the security value of a nuclear deterrent.

In a report released Dec. 5, the U.S. intelligence community assessed that Iran is “not building a nuclear weapon” but that the country has “undertaken activities that better position it to produce one.”

The report also assessed that public discussions regarding the security value of nuclear weapons in Iran reflects the “erosion of a decades-long taboo” that risks “emboldening nuclear weapons advocates within Iran’s decision-making apparatus.” Iran may seek nuclear weapons to “rectify a strategic imbalance with its adversaries,” the report said.

Since the U.S. intelligence report was published, a key pillar of Iran’s national security known as its forward defense strategy faced another setback when opposition forces toppled the regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad. Iran committed to supporting Assad in 2012 after a civil war broke out in the country and deployed military personnel to support Syrian troops. Additionally, Iran used Syria as a transit route for supplying Hezbollah militants in Lebanon. Israeli attacks on Hezbollah and two other militant groups—Hamas in Gaza and the Houthis in Yemen—as well as the ouster of Assad, significantly eroded Iran’s security.

U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said in a Dec. 22 interview on CNN that, with Iran’s conventional military capabilities reduced and the fall of Assad, it is “no wonder” that voices in Iran are calling for nuclear weapons.

Sullivan said the United States will need to be vigilant about the risk of Iran pursuing nuclear weapons and he is briefing the incoming administration on this issue.

The Trump administration has not revealed how it might reduce the proliferation risk posed by Iran. At a September campaign event, Trump said the United States will need to “make a deal” with Iran or face “impossible” consequences.

But it is not clear what type of agreement Trump may attempt to negotiate. After withdrawing from the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran during his first term in office, Trump said that he wanted to conclude a better deal with Iran, but his administration’s demands for a new agreement amounted to regime change and went nowhere. (See ACT, June 2018.)

Trump’s incoming national security adviser, Michael Waltz, told CNBC in an October interview that there will be “more focus on Iran” in the Trump administration and suggested that the United States will return to a strategy of “maximum pressure.”

But increasing sanctions pressure takes time, and the Trump administration faces a short time frame for reaching a deal with Iran. Without a nuclear agreement in place by October 2025, France and the UK likely will reimpose UN sanctions on Iran, using a mechanism that cannot be vetoed. That “snapback” mechanism was included in Security Council Resolution 2231, which endorsed the 2015 nuclear deal, and expires on Oct. 18.

In a Dec. 11 statement, France, Germany, and the UK reiterated their “determination to use all diplomatic tools to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon, including using snapback if necessary.”

A nuclear deal is still possible if the snapback mechanism is triggered, but Iran has threatened to withdraw from the nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty in response to the reimposition of UN sanctions.