"I find hope in the work of long-established groups such as the Arms Control Association...[and] I find hope in younger anti-nuclear activists and the movement around the world to formally ban the bomb."
EU Bolsters Iran Nuclear Deal
July/August 2017
By Kelsey Davenport
The European Union is committed to maintaining the nuclear deal with Iran whatever the outcome of a review by the Trump administration, EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini said at a June 13 press briefing at the Oslo Forum.
Mogherini said she is confident that the Iran policy review underway by the United States will lead to “wise decisions” and will keep the deal in place because it is working. “In any event, the European Union will guarantee that the deal keeps,” said Mogherini, who was lead negotiator for the P5+1 (China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States) during the nuclear negotiations with Iran.
Her remarks appear to signal that the Europeans would not support reimposing economic sanctions on Iran if President Donald Trump, as he vowed during his campaign, decides unilaterally to “dismantle the disastrous deal with Iran.” European participation in sanctions on Iran was a critical element in building pressure on Iran to negotiate constraints on its nuclear activities.
Christopher Ford, a special assistant to the president and senior director for weapons of mass destruction and counterproliferation at the National Security Council, said at the June 2 Arms Control Association annual meeting that the Trump administration would consider the future of the nuclear agreement “responsibly and wisely” during its review of U.S. policy toward Iran but would not hold other aspects of Iran policy “hostage to that deal.”
The Obama administration had an “unwelcome reluctance to press back and hold Iran accountable” in other areas out of concern for the preservation of the deal, Ford said.
The review will consider whether Iran meeting its commitments under the nuclear deal is an “adequate answer to the long-term challenges that we face in containing the threats presented by the possibility of Iran positioning itself into the indefinite future” as a “latent or virtual” nuclear-weapon state, Ford said.
Ford said he did not know what the timetable would be for finishing the review, but noted that the administration is working to finish it “as quickly as possible.”
Regardless of the review’s completion, the Trump administration will need to certify to Congress again in mid-July whether Iran is complying with the nuclear deal. U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson issued the first certification in April. The certification is a requirement under U.S. law, not the nuclear deal.
IAEA Reports on Iran
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) released its quarterly report on Iran’s compliance with the nuclear deal in June. Mogherini said on June 13 that this report is the sixth time that the IAEA has said that the nuclear deal with Iran is “fully implemented.”
The June 2 report noted that Iran has 128.2 metric tons of heavy water, below the 130 metric ton limit set by the nuclear deal. Iran slightly exceeded this limit twice in 2016.
According to the report, the agency verified that Iran has shut down for maintenance the production plant that produces heavy water. The IAEA has also asked Iran to submit additional information about the capacity of the heavy water plant. In 2016 the plant produced more heavy water than the production capacity Iran provided to the IAEA.
The report referenced for the first time that the IAEA is verifying that Iran is not conducting certain activities related to developing a nuclear weapon. These prohibited activities, which include certain types of explosive testing and the purchase of particular technologies, are laid out in Annex I of the deal. The report did not specify how the IAEA is monitoring this compliance.
Andrew Schofer, chargé d’affaires for the U.S. mission to international organizations in Vienna, told the IAEA Board of Governors during its regular meeting June 12-16 that the United States welcomes the report and said that “any new and credible concerns of undeclared nuclear activities in Iran can and must be pursued by the IAEA” and that Washington has confidence in the agency’s “highly skilled and professional inspectors.”
It is unclear, however, if the United States will meet its assessed contribution for the IAEA’s budget in fiscal year 2018. The State Department budget request submitted May 23 did not give a specific number for the IAEA, the U.S. contribution for which is funded out of the line item for international organizations that was cut by 31 percent from 2017 levels.
Reza Najafi, Iran’s ambassador to the IAEA, criticized the United States on its implementation of the nuclear deal during the agency’s board meeting June 15. Najafi cited the United States in particular for an “unacceptable” level of commitment to the deal and said that preserving the nuclear deal will require full implementation by all sides.
New Sanctions
The Senate passed a new Iran sanctions bill by a vote of 98-2 on June 15, despite concerns from former Secretary of State John Kerry that it could undermine the nuclear deal.
An amendment passed by the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on May 25 removed provisions that could have violated the nuclear accord, but Kerry said on June 6 that it could be dangerous if Washington’s bellicosity pushes Iran into a corner.
The two votes against the bill came from Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Rand Paul (R-Ky.). In a June 15 statement, Sanders said he supported sanctions on Iran in the past but that “new sanctions could endanger the very important nuclear agreement” and that is “not a risk worth taking, particularly at a time of heightened tension between Iran and Saudi Arabia and its allies.”
The bill was amended on the floor of the Senate on June 14 to include sanctions on Russia. Sen. Bob Corker (R-Tenn.), chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and author of the legislation, said that the bill sends a “clear signal to both Iran and Russia that our country will stand firm in the face of destabilizing behavior.”
Abbas Araqchi, Iran’s deputy foreign minister, said on June 11 that the bill goes against the “goodwill” of the agreement. Araqchi said that Iran will bring its concerns over the legislation to the July meeting of the Joint Commission, the body set up by the deal to oversee its implementation.—KELSEY DAVENPORT