NPT to Tackle Tough Questions in May

Christine Kucia

As delegates from member states of the nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) meet in Geneva April 28-May 9 for the second in a series of international consultations prior to the 2005 review conference for the treaty, North Korea’s withdrawal from the accord and Iran’s potential challenge to the treaty emerged as focal points of discussion at the conference, if not the formal program.

Assistant Secretary of State for Nonproliferation John S. Wolf April 28 described Pyongyang’s actions as “both cynical…and dangerous in its impact on North Korea.”

But Wolf saved some of his strongest words for Iran which he termed “the most fundamental challenge ever faced by the NPT.”

This year’s NPT Preparatory Committee meeting, chaired by Ambassador László Molnár of Hungary, is confronted with a wide range of complicated issues. North Korea’s January 10 announcement of its withdrawal from the NPT—the first time an NPT member state has turned its back on the treaty since it entered into force in 1970—casts a shadow on the meeting. April 10 marked the end of the three-month period the treaty requires from the time a country announces its withdrawal to the time the withdrawal is official.

In addition, new U.S. nuclear weapons use policy that appears to contradict negative nuclear security assurances made in the context of the NPT is likely to elicit criticism at the meeting (See ACT, May 2003), as are U.S. moves to explore development of a nuclear bunker buster and repeal legislation banning research and development of low-yield nuclear weapons. Nuclear-weapon states agreed in Article VI of the treaty to pursue measures leading toward eventual nuclear disarmament, and NPT members also promised to take steps that could enable the early entry into force of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty—most recently at the 2000 Review Conference.

Member states face other outstanding questions, such as finding a way to include India, Israel, and Pakistan—which are believed to have nuclear weapons but have never signed the NPT—in a comprehensive nuclear nonproliferation regime; eliminating tactical nuclear weapons arsenals; and having all member states conclude fissile material safeguards agreements with the International Atomic Energy Agency, which would allow the agency to monitor the safety and security of nuclear materials in member states. The unstable relationship between nuclear-armed India and Pakistan is likely to weigh heavily as a regional issue of global concern, as well as tensions from possible nuclear weapons development and possession in the Middle East.

States are also expected to highlight recent successes in nuclear nonproliferation and disarmament. For example, the U.S.-Russian Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty, ratified by the U.S. Congress March 6, will reduce each country’s arsenal down to 1,700-2,200 strategic nuclear weapons by 2012. Each state currently deploys 6,000 nuclear warheads.