Nuclear Disarmament Monitor
September 12, 2024
At the Sep. 4 plenary session of the UN General Assembly, China announced it has taken over the role of coordinating the P5 process from Russia in line with the group’s rotating schedule. China “looks forward to continuing dialogue and cooperation among the P5 on the basis of their 2022 joint statement on the prevention of nuclear war and exploring feasible initiatives to reduce nuclear risks,” said the Chinese delegation. The P5 process is a multilateral discussion forum involving the five nuclear powers recognized by the nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.
The Chinese delegation to the General Assembly also reiterated China’s traditional call for the P5 to “negotiate and conclude the treaty of no-first-use of nuclear weapons against each other or issue a relevant political statement.” This no-first-use treaty proposal was also invoked at the Sep. 4-6 Beijing Summit and the ninth Ministerial Conference of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC).
In an action plan document, China, 53 African countries, and the chairperson of the African Union Commission called on nuclear-weapons states to adopt the no-first-use policy, to issue a relevant declaration, and “to support the negotiation of international legal instruments on providing negative security assurances to non-nuclear-weapon states.” They highlighted, in particular, the African nuclear-weapon-free-zone and the proposed Middle East Weapons of Mass Destruction free zone. The document also reaffirmed all states’ inalienable right to use nuclear energy for peaceful purposes.
—Xiaodon Liang, senior policy analyst; Shizuka Kuramitsu, research assistant; Libby Flatoff, operations and program assistant; Garrett Welch, policy and research intern.
States Negotiate Disarmament Language in Summit for the Future Outcome Document
Ahead of the Sep. 22-23 Summit for the Future, states are negotiating language regarding disarmament for an outcome document entitled “A Pact for the Future.” The pact is intended to be “a concise, action-oriented outcome document” which should be “agreed in advance by consensus through intergovernmental negotiations,” per UN General Assembly resolution 76/307. The current draft–the third revision–of language on efforts toward a nuclear-free world and to uphold disarmament commitments is a result of intensive discussions between P5 states and members of the New Agenda Coalition, which includes Brazil, Egypt, Ireland, Mexico, New Zealand, and South Africa. Diplomatic sources indicate there may be further revisions of the document before the conclusion of negotiations.
U.S. Conducts Review of Nuclear Force Requirements
The United States has conducted a year-long review of its nuclear force requirements and how to execute a possible future increase in deployed nuclear warheads, outgoing acting Assistant Secretary of Defense for Space Policy Vipin Narang said in Aug. 1 comments at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. The announcement conforms with and expands upon the prior statement made by National Security Council Senior Director for Arms Control, Disarmament, and Nonproliferation Pranay Vaddi at the June 7 annual meeting of the Arms Control Association that “we need to be fully prepared to execute” an increase in deployed strategic nuclear forces in the next decade.
Narang said the review “lay[s] the groundwork now so national leaders have options to quickly and responsibly adjust the future nuclear force if needed.” He did not reveal what specific programs or decisions have resulted from the review, but said his team at the Defense Department has been considering “options to increase future launcher capacity or additional deployed warheads on the land, sea, and air legs.”
Earlier this year, President Joe Biden approved new Nuclear Weapons Employment Guidance. The classified document provides instructions for implementation of the 2022 Nuclear Posture Review. The executive branch is required by law to provide a report to Congress summarizing the guidance document 60 days before it is implemented. See also: “US says secret nuclear strategy not a response to single country or threat,” Reuters, Aug. 20, 2024.
Swing State Survey Shows Strong Support for Testing Moratorium
Large majorities of voters in six U.S. states critical to the November presidential election are opposed to a resumption of nuclear weapons testing, according to a new survey conducted by the University of Maryland’s Program for Public Consultation and released Aug. 28. The survey, conducted between July 19 and Aug. 2, records the responses of roughly 600 respondents in each of the battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. In all six, more than 70% of respondents supported continuing the U.S. moratorium on nuclear testing. Both Republicans and Democrats backed the moratorium by similar proportions.
India Inducts Second Ballistic Missile Submarine
The Indian Navy commissioned its second indigenously designed ballistic missile submarine, the INS Arighaat, on Aug. 29, nearly seven years after the nuclear-powered vessel launched. At a commissioning ceremony at the Visakhapatnam naval yard, Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh said “It is essential for us to develop rapidly in every field, including defence, especially in today's geopolitical scenario.”
India conducted two tests of an in-development nuclear-capable submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM), the K-4, in December. The Arighaat and its predecessor, the INS Arihant, will each field four K-4 missiles, which are expected to have a range of roughly 3,500 km. At present, they are equipped with an older SLBM, the K-15, which has a limited range of 750 km.
In a recent report, the Federation of American Scientists noted other advances in India’s nuclear program over the last two years. In March 2024, India successfully flight-tested its Agni-V ballistic missile, which has an estimated range of over 5,000 km, with multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV) technology. The report also highlighted upgrades to India’s Mirage 2000H fighter-bomber, an older nuclear-capable jet, to extend its service life and improve capabilities. Additionally, India is advancing plans to construct a repair, maintenance, and overhaul facility for its newer nuclear-capable Rafale combat aircraft.
U.S. Sentinel Program to Consider Fresh Silos Amid Restructuring
Construction contractors are considering building entirely new silos as part of the Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) program due to the poor condition of existing silos, U.S. officials revealed to the Wall Street Journal in late August. The current Minuteman III force is deployed in 400 silos while 50 decommissioned silos remain in reserve. The Senate version of the National Defense Authorization Act for fiscal year 2025 requires the Air Force to plan for an increase in deployed Sentinel ICBMs to 450 siloed missiles.
Following the Defense Department’s July 8 announcement that the ICBM acquisition program would continue despite an 81% cost estimate increase to $141 billion, the Air Force has gradually made public some of the next steps it intends to take to restructure the effort. Service officials now say a “line-by-line” review of options to simplify the program will continue for the next 18 months. Beyond combining the directorates that manage Sentinel and Minuteman III sustainment, the Air Force has also suggested it will consider re-tendering some construction work associated with the acquisition program.
World Observes International Day against Nuclear Tests
On Aug. 29, the International Day Against Nuclear Tests (IDANT), the international community observed the 75th anniversary of the first Soviet nuclear test near Semey with a number of events and conferences. In Astana, the capital of Kazakhstan, on the sidelines of a joint Nuclear Weapons Free Zones conference, civil society groups coordinated events including a youth forum and a nuclear survivors forum.
Meanwhile, about 50 participants from the Youth Leader Fund for a World without Nuclear Weapons visited Japan and hosted the inaugural Youth Leader Conference in Hiroshima on the memorial day. The following week, the UN General Assembly hosted Sep. 4 a high-level session for the IDANT, during which UN member states expressed their commitment to uphold the de-facto nuclear-testing moratorium and advance efforts to support the 1996 Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty.
U.S. and UK Plan Indefinite Extension of Nuclear Cooperation Agreement
The United States and the United Kingdom plan to extend indefinitely the US-UK Mutual Defense Agreement (MDA). This bilateral treaty, which governs nuclear technology and information sharing between the two states, was signed in 1958 and has since been amended and renewed several times. The treaty was set to expire in December of this year prior to the indefinite extension. President Biden urged Congress to ratify the proposed amendment as a means to shore up both states' mutual defense posture.
This move occurred as both states continue to modernize their nuclear arsenals in response to perceived threats from Russia and China. The Russian war in Ukraine has exacerbated concerns of a global nuclear arms race, while London has recently called China an “epoch-defining challenge.” This security environment was central to the recent AUKUS deal concluded between the US, UK, and Australia, in which both states agreed to provide Australia with nuclear-powered submarines. David Cullen, director of the UK-based think tank Nuclear Information Service, said the extension “provides a permanent underpin to the modernization of the UK’s nuclear deterrent” and “locks in cooperation over AUKUS.”
Disarmament Calendar:
- Sept. 24-Oct. 1: UN General Assembly, New York
- Sept. 26: International Day for the Total Elimination of Nuclear Weapons
- Oct. 7-Nov. 8: UN General Assembly First Committee on Disarmament and International Security, New York
- Oct. 24-30: Disarmament week
- Nov. 18-22: Fifth Conference on the Establishment of a Middle East Zone Free of Nuclear Weapons and Other Weapons of Mass Destruction, New York
In Case You Missed It
- “IAEA chief Grossi hopes to hold talks with Iranian president by November,” by Francois Murphy, Reuters, Sept. 9.
- “OPINION: How PM can help renew action for disarmament on 80th anniversary,” by Thomas Countryman, Shizuka Kuramitsu and Daryl G. Kimball, Kyodo News, Sept. 7.
- “South Korea's Nuclear Weapons Debate: A Third Way Forward?,” by SeungHwan Kim, the National Interest, Sept. 7.
- “Project 2025’s stance on nuclear testing: A dangerous step back,” by Tom Armbruster, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Sept. 6.
- “Opinion: Any bill reforming RECA must include uranium miners AND downwinders,” by Mary Dickson, Deseret News, Sept. 6.
- “Understanding China's Perceptions and Strategy Toward Nuclear Weapons: A Case Study Approach,” by Lyle J. Morris and Rakesh Sood, the Asia Society Policy Institute, Sept. 5.
- “Exclusive: U.S. researchers find probable launch site of Russia's new nuclear-powered missile,” by Jonathan Landay, Reuters, Sept. 3.
- “Election 2024: The Next U.S. President’s Nuclear Challenges,” by Steven Andreasen, Jessica Sleight, Lynn Rusten, Amy J. Nelson, James M. Acton, Barbara Slavin, Jean H. Lee, and James Goldgeier, Arms Control Today, September 2024.
- “Remarks by Rep. John Garamendi (CA-08) at United States Strategic Command 2024 Deterrence Symposium,” Aug.13.
- “Aligning Arms Control with the New Security Environment,” ed. Michael Albertson, Center for Global Security Research Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, May 2024.