Digests and Blog

Inside the Arms Control Association    April 2024Today, nearly 80 years after the start of the nuclear age, the United States has more than 5,000 nuclear warheads, including some 1,770 thermonuclear warheads deployed on 660 powerful, long-range missiles on land and at sea, and on strategic bombers. In addition, the United States retains some 200 "tactical" nuclear bombs on shorter-range aircraft. Use of just a fraction of these weapons, most of which are deployed on a prompt launch status, would lead to catastrophic devastation on a global scale.As we reported in Arms Control Today this month…

As the Israeli government considers its response to Iran’s April 13 retaliatory attack, a strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities should be off the table. Targeting Iranian nuclear sites in reaction to a drone and missile attack that did minimal damage to Israel would be a reckless and irresponsible escalation that increases the risk of a wider regional war. Furthermore, a large-scale attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities is more likely to push Tehran to decide that developing nuclear weapons is necessary to deter future attacks.While the U.S. military rightly helped Israel shoot down the wave…

Iran avoided a censure during the March meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) Board of Governors despite Tehran’s failure to cooperate with a yearslong agency investigation into past undeclared nuclear activities. The United States and the E3 (France, Germany, and the United Kingdom) denounced Iran’s stonewalling during the quarterly board meeting and suggested that they will push for action at the June meeting if Iran does not cooperate with the agency.In a March 6 statement, the E3 said that “the need for the Board to hold Iran accountable to its legal obligations is…

Inside the Arms Control Association    March 2024Last month speaking in Geneva, UN Secretary-General António Guterres issued a stark warning: “The nuclear shadow that loomed over humanity last century has returned with a vengeance.  The nuclear risk is higher than at any moment since the depths of the Cold War.”“Some statesmen regularly imply that they are fully prepared to unleash nuclear hell — an outrageous threat that the world must condemn with clarity and force.  And the vital norms and standards against the proliferation, testing, and use of nuclear weapons are being eroded,” he said.…

A high school teacher in my hometown Hiroshima once shared with me a quote from David Krieger, “Some view Hiroshima from above mushroom clouds, whereas some are under the clouds.”On the evening of Feb. 22, an auction titled “Hiroshima Atomic Bombing: Melted Wristwatch with Detonation Time of 8:15 AM” was concluded with a $31,113 winning bid.Some, including sellers and bidders, perceived this auction as an opportunity to collect a rare historic treasure that symbolizes the dawn of the nuclear era. For other people, this watch is an artifact of a tragic memory. They felt disrespected, disgusted…

As U.S. forces and Iranian-backed militias clash in the Middle East, there is a growing risk that another dangerous flash point could ignite conflict between Tehran and Washington: Iran’s advancing nuclear program. Iran is already on the threshold of nuclear weapons six years on from U.S. withdrawal from the multilateral arrangement that had, to that point, successfully contained its nuclear program. Escalating regional tensions could push Tehran to determine it needs a nuclear deterrent for security or the United States to miscalculate Iran’s intentions and prematurely use military force…

With less than two years to go before the expiration of the last remaining treaty limiting the world's two largest arsenals, Russian leaders continue to reject U.S. offers to discuss a new nuclear arms control framework.In late December, Russia sent a diplomatic paper rejecting the United States’ proposal to resume arms control talks, according to U.S. officials, and Russia's foreign minister announced Jan. 18 that Russia was interested in talks on a new arms control framework to supersede the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), which expires Feb. 5, 2026.In a speech Jan. 17,…

Inside the Arms Control Association      December 2023Bright Spots in a Difficult YearOverall, 2023 was another difficult year for arms control and international security.In fact, it has been a difficult decade as relations among the states with the world’s largest nuclear arsenals have deteriorated and progress on disarmament has stalled.The result is that nuclear risks are on the rise, and we are now on the brink of a dangerous and costly era of nuclear competition – unless we act now.Through the challenges of the past year, we have persisted and made some headway that may provide openings…

The P4+1 and Iran Nuclear Deal AlertA top U.S. official said that restoring the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran is not a viable option in the current environment, confirming the shift in the Biden administration’s strategy for addressing the risk posed by Iran’s advancing nuclear program.Kurt Campbell, President Joe Biden’s nominee for deputy secretary of state, told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee during his Dec. 7 confirmation hearing that a return to the nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), is “just not on the table.”Campbell, currently the National…

The P4+1 and Iran Nuclear Deal AlertThe head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reiterated concerns about Iran’s advancing nuclear program and called for diplomacy with Tehran.During the Jan. 15-19 World Economic Forum in Davos, IAEA Director-General Rafael Mariano Grossi said Iran is “restricting cooperation in a very unprecedented way” and is punishing the agency for actions taken by the United States and European countries. He said it is “unacceptable” for the IAEA to be held “hostage” to Iran’s “political disputes with others.”Grossi emphasized that diplomacy is necessary “…