Arms Control and Proliferation Profile: China

November 2007

This profile summarizes the major arms control agreements, regimes, initiatives, and practices that China subscribes to and those that it does not. It also describes the major weapons programs, policies, and holdings of China, as well as its proliferation record. This profile is one of a series focused on the arms control record and status of key states, all of which are available on the Arms Control Association’s Website at http://www.armscontrol.org.

Major Multilateral Arms Control Agreements and Treaties

Export Control Regimes, Nonproliferation Initiatives, and Safeguards

Australia Group: Not a member.

Missile Technology Control Regime: Not a member, but China in 2004 applied for membership. Beijing’s bid has not won the necessary consensus approval of the group because the United States and some other countries continue to find fault with Chinese missile and technology exports.

Nuclear Suppliers Group: Member.

Wassenaar Arrangement: Not a member.

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Additional Protocol: Yes, entered into force in 2002.

Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism: Participant.

Hague Code of Conduct against Ballistic Missile Proliferation: Not a participant.

Proliferation Security Initiative: Not a participant.

UN Security Council Resolutions 1540 and 1673: China has filed reports on its activities to fulfill the resolutions.

Major Weapons Programs, Policies, and Practices

Biological Weapons:
China contends it is in compliance with the Biological Weapons Convention despite U.S. allegations asserting the contrary. In an August 2005 report, the U.S. Department of State claimed, “indications suggest that China maintained an offensive [biological weapons] program prior to acceding to the Convention in 1984.” That report further stated, “the United States believes that China continues to maintain some elements of an offensive [biological weapons] capability.”[3]

Chemical Weapons:
China has declared that it has destroyed all chemical weapon agent production facilities and solely conducts defensive chemical warfare research. But the United States accuses China of possessing a chemical weapons “production mobilization capability, although there is insufficient information available to determine whether it maintains an active offensive [chemical weapons] research and development program.”[4]

Missiles:

• Ballistic Missiles: China has developed and deployed short- to long-range ballistic missiles. Conventional-armed short-range ballistic missiles make up the greatest portion of China’s missile force. As of October 2006, Beijing had deployed approximately 900 of those systems opposite Taiwan, and, according to the U.S. Department of Defense, is adding approximately 100 additional missiles each year.[5]


Meanwhile, China over the past two decades appears generally content with a minimal force of nuclear-armed ICBMs, deploying approximately 20 such missiles with the capability of striking the entire United States. China, however, is working to modernize this force with the development of the solid-fuel DF-31A ICBM, and the U.S. government contends the Chinese force could double or triple within several years.

China also is pursuing a new submarine-launched ballistic missile, the JL-2, to presumably equip a new class of submarines, the Jin-class (Type 094), that China has started to launch.[6] The predecessors of these systems, the JL-1 missile and Xia-class submarine, appear not to have been mated together or operationally deployed.[7]

Cruise Missiles: China has been actively developing cruise missiles with foreign assistance, primarily from Russia. It already possesses nearly a dozen varieties of anti-ship missiles, such as the Russian-made SS-N-22, and is pursuing land-attack cruise missiles.[8]

Nuclear Weapons:
China maintains strict secrecy on the size of its nuclear arsenal, but independent estimates generally range between 100 and 200 warheads.[9] In an April 2004 statement, China claimed that it “possesses the smallest nuclear arsenal” of the five recognized NPT nuclear-weapon states.

China is the sole nuclear-weapon state to declare publicly that it will not be the first to use nuclear weapons. Beijing has emphasized that this vow stands “at any time or under any circumstances.”

China conducted 45 nuclear tests. The first test occurred Oct. 16, 1964, and the last test took place July 29, 1996.

Although China has not publicly declared a halt to the production of fissile material, highly enriched uranium (HEU) and plutonium, general speculation is that Beijing has stopped. One independent estimate calculates that China has accumulated as much as 25 metric tons of HEU and six metric tons of plutonium for weapons.[10]

Conventional Weapons Trade:
China is a key country in the global arms trade. It is a leading buyer of advanced conventional weapons, particularly from Russia, and a supplier of less advanced arms, such as small arms and light weapons, to poorer countries. Most Chinese clients are in Africa and Asia. From 1999 to 2006, China agreed to buy $17 billion in arms, while concluding contracts to export $10.8 billion in weapons.[11]

Proliferation Record

China’s proliferation record has been less than exemplary. Most notably, China aided Pakistan’s nuclear and missile programs. Iran, Libya, North Korea, and Saudi Arabia also have been identified as Chinese proliferation recipients. As of June 2007, the George W. Bush administration had imposed more sanctions on Chinese entities than those of any other country. All told, the administration levied 78 separate sanctions on a total of 32 Chinese entities.

Still, China’s proliferation activities have diminished over the past several years. Indeed, Nuclear Supplier Group members, including the United States, saw enough improvement in China’s nuclear export behavior that they extended membership to China in 2004. At the same time, many of those same governments have refused China’s bid to join the Missile Technology Control Regime, citing continuing concerns about Chinese missile and missile technology transactions.

Other Arms Control and Nonproliferation Activities

China has signed protocols stating its intent to respect and not threaten the use of nuclear weapons against states-parties to the Latin America, South Pacific, and African nuclear-weapon-free zone treaties. China has not signed the protocols for the Central Asian and Southeast Asian zones. Nonetheless, Beijing stated in April 2004 that it “undertakes unconditionally not to use or threaten to use nuclear weapons against…nuclear-weapon-free zones.”

At the 65-member Conference on Disarmament, China expresses support for negotiation of an “effectively verifiable” fissile material cutoff treaty while declaring its top priority to be the prevention of an arms race in outer space. Chinese insistence that the conference take some action on the outer space issue in parallel with any negotiations on a cutoff treaty and the U.S. opposition to that approach has stalemated the conference over the past several years. In 2003, China said it would accept discussions on outer space rather than formal negotiations but that formulation remained unacceptable to the United States. China, however, did not agree to a 2007 compromise formula, including talks on outer space, that the United States said it would not oppose.

At another Geneva forum, the Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons (CCW), China joined with Pakistan and Russia to block an initiative to negotiate restrictions on the use of anti-vehicle mines. But Beijing went along with consensus in November 2007 to begin CCW negotiations on cluster munitions. China, however, is not participating in a separate Norwegian-led effort to negotiate a treaty to ban cluster munitions that “cause unacceptable harm to civilians.”

China has played a key role in hosting and helping mediate the so-called six-party process to achieve North Korea’s nuclear disarmament. On Iran, China has resisted U.S. and European pressure to increase sanctions on Tehran for its continuing nuclear activities.

-Researched and prepared by Scarlet Kim and Alex Bollfrass.

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