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Nuclear arms control and disarmament after New START

Fri, 06 Feb 2026 19:35:21 +0000

Nuclear arms control and disarmament after New START [email protected] Fri, 02/06/2026 - 14:35

ACA Executive Director Daryl Kimball provides an expert commentary on the now unconstrained strategic nuclear arsenals of the United States and Russia in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.

The expiration of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) this week means that the United States and Russia are now unconstrained and could soon begin increasing their strategic deployed arsenal by uploading additional warheads on existing missiles and bombers—for the first time in more than 35 years. The end of New START could also open a new phase of dangerous nuclear competition—one that involves all the major nuclear-armed states.

Deploying more nuclear weapons will not make anyone safer. The United States already has a massive, devastating, and largely invulnerable nuclear force that is more than sufficient to deter nuclear attack. In 2013, the Pentagon’s Report of Nuclear Weapons Employment Strategy determined that the United States could reduce its deployed strategic nuclear weapons by up to one-third below New START levels and still deter possible attacks from any adversary. That basic conclusion still holds today, despite the expansion of China’s arsenal ever since.

Deploying additional US nuclear weapons would not fundamentally change the deterrence calculus of Chinese President Xi Jinping or Russian President Vladimir Putin. On the contrary, increases in Russian and US strategic forces would further destabilize the mutual balance of terror, pushing China to accelerate its program to expand its strategic nuclear retaliatory force.

How we got here. The deterioration of the arms control regime is the result of years of high-level inattention and the current US administration’s wrecking-ball approach to long-standing international norms and agreements that the United States helped.

Since New START entered into force in 2011, Moscow and Washington have misfired on their on-again, off-again discussions on further nuclear reductions as their relations have soured. Since the beginning of his second term, President Donald Trump has talked bigly about starting denuclearization talks with Russia and China, but he has failed to follow through on his promise. Worse yet, Trump has threatened to resume nuclear testing in response to allegations that Russia and China have conducted clandestine nuclear tests.

Read the full OpEd, published Feb. 5, 2026 at The Bulletin.

Thomas Countryman on New START Expiry and the Value of Arms Control

Fri, 06 Feb 2026 16:45:05 +0000

Thomas Countryman on New START Expiry and the Value of Arms Control

Arms Control Now Blog

[email protected] Fri, 02/06/2026 - 11:45

^{Countryman's remarks begin at timestamp 27:25.}

Thomas Countryman on New START Expiry and the Value of Arms Control

February 4, 2026

Prior to New START’s expiration, ACA board chair Tom Countryman joined Massachusetts Senator Ed Markey, Oregon Senator Jeff Merkley, California Representative John Garamendi, ACA Executive Director Daryl G. Kimball, FAS Director of Global Risk Jon Wolfsthal, and Senior Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis Lynn Rusten to urge the replacement of New START and a return to negotiations to prevent an new and more dangerous three-way arms race.

"I want to believe that Donald Trump is sincere in the occasional brief comments he has made about denuclearization, about wanting to see a smaller arsenal, about wanting to spend less than a hundred billion dollars a year as we do today in maintaining our nuclear weapons and the complex that supports them.

I want to believe that.

But I hope he also knows that this is not a real estate deal that can be concluded over a cup of tea with another leader.

Arms control treaties require detailed preparation and long negotiations by an expert inter-agency team. And the inter-agency team, by the way, has largely been decimated with most of the people experienced in negotiating with Russia removed from the State Department in the last year.

Still, I want to believe that there can be a new and productive era in arms control - a stronger agreement that doesn't just set rules of the road to reduce risk, but that actually reduces the number of warheads in three arsenals and reduces the amount of money the American people pay to maintain that arsenal.

To get there, President Trump needs to take a deep breath and not begin uploading missiles tomorrow. Rather, take advantage of the fact that you've got time to make decisions and more importantly, you've got time to talk to the other side.

He should empower a qualified team of experienced professionals to begin negotiations with Russia. He should authorize a qualified team of experienced professionals to begin consultations, not negotiations, but consultations with China.

This is the path forward.

We do not have to set back the goals that 10 presidents in a row have expressed of reducing nuclear danger by rushing to an immediate buildup.

One more thought to build on what my friend Lynn Rusten, Senior Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis, said.

What is arms control?

Arms control is not an end in itself. It is not virtue signaling. It is not a guaranteed path to a Nobel Peace Prize, although historically, it's not a bad path to that peace prize.

Arms control is national security.

It is the most efficient, the least risky, the least costly form of national security. And if this administration fails to make it a priority today, we will face a trilateral nuclear arms race that will exceed in cost and in danger what we lived through during the Cold War.

Let's make a smarter choice."

The End of New Start: Are We on the Brink of a Global Nuclear Arms Race?

Thu, 05 Feb 2026 22:15:39 +0000

The End of New Start: Are We on the Brink of a Global Nuclear Arms Race? [email protected] Thu, 02/05/2026 - 17:15

News Link

https://slguardian.org/the-end-of-new-start-are-we-on-the-brink-of-a-global-nuc…

News Source

Sri Lanka Guardian

Cited

Thomas Countryman

News Date

Wednesday, February 4, 2026 - 12:00

The last US nuclear weapons treaty with Russia is dying

Thu, 05 Feb 2026 22:13:37 +0000

The last US nuclear weapons treaty with Russia is dying [email protected] Thu, 02/05/2026 - 17:13

News Link

https://www.politico.eu/article/last-united-states-nuclear-weapons-treaty-with-…

News Source

Politico Europe

Cited

Daryl Kimball

News Date

Tuesday, February 3, 2026 - 12:00

Fears of nuclear arms race rise as US-Russia treaty expires

Thu, 05 Feb 2026 22:12:48 +0000

Fears of nuclear arms race rise as US-Russia treaty expires [email protected] Thu, 02/05/2026 - 17:12

News Link

https://www.cnn.com/2026/02/05/politics/fears-nuclear-arms-race-treaty-expires

News Source

CNN

Cited

Daryl Kimball

Thomas Countryman

News Date

Thursday, February 5, 2026 - 12:00

In 2026, a Growing Risk of Nuclear Proliferation

Thu, 05 Feb 2026 20:53:35 +0000

In 2026, a Growing Risk of Nuclear Proliferation [email protected] Thu, 02/05/2026 - 15:53

With the risks of new nuclear-armed States on the rise, the nuclear non-profileration regime is in danger of collapse. In 2026, Iran will continue to dominate the headlines as the most likely country to exit the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) or develop nuclear weapons in violation of its treaty obligations. Beyond Tehran, however, additional countries are likely to move closer to weaponization as debates about the security value of nuclear deterrence intensify and technical barriers to proliferation erode.

For decades, since the NPT entered into force in 1970, international efforts to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons proved remarkably successful. Although three countries—India, Israel, and Pakistan—developed nuclear arsenals outside of the NPT, only North Korea developed the bomb in violation of its NPT obligations. Several factors contributed to the success of nonproliferation efforts, including unity among the nuclear-weapon States in responding to proliferation threats, sustained efforts to limit the spread of technologies necessary for weaponization, and the perceived security value of the NPT.

The U.S.-led international order created a geopolitical environment conducive to these multilateral efforts to prevent proliferation. That order, however, is collapsing. In its place, a new, more dangerous geopolitical environment is emerging. Marked by fraying alliances, aggressive great-power competition, and a U.S. retreat from multilateralism, this new order could lead to a new era of proliferation, as additional States debate the value of nuclear weapons.

Read the full OpEd, published Feb. 5, 2026 at Just Security.

Aumentan los temores de una carrera armamentista nuclear después de expirar el tratado entre Estados Unidos y Rusia

Thu, 05 Feb 2026 20:26:43 +0000

Aumentan los temores de una carrera armamentista nuclear después de expirar el tratado entre Estados Unidos y Rusia [email protected] Thu, 02/05/2026 - 15:26

News Link

https://cnnespanol.cnn.com/2026/02/05/mundo/aumentan-temores-carrera-armamentis…

News Source